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Long story short, it's both hardware and software holding things back. On the hardware side, there is a lot going on with solid state radar and lidar sensors im

Long story short, it's both hardware and software holding things back. On the hardware side, there is a lot going on with solid state radar and lidar sensors improving by the minute, while prices are down a factor of 10-100 from even 5 years ago. There are now sensors available for research and product development that in 5 years time will allow a semi high-end production car to robustly drive all traffic conditions on a highway. Car makers (and suppliers) have to learn how to make software to make optimal use of the existing hardware, but they've got a long way to go, still. Every major player nowadays has a research center in Palo Alto or whereabouts, seemingly trying to learn how to do this via osmosis, but it will take some time until they really understand how to keep pace with information technology, and how to bring it into their mammuth manufacturing and legal frameworks. Nevermind the necessary mindset to pull it off.

poutine 11y ago
The software exists today to allow a production VW Golf with stock sensors to self drive on the highway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHyw58hn4sM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHyw58hn4sM This stuff is coming fast...
- jacquesm 11y ago
  The way that steering wheel twitches would make me very nervous.
- dognotdog 11y ago
  It's no problem to autopilot on the highway today, 90-95% of the time. But that number needs to go even higher, still, before it can be unleashed on the public. And for that last edge, sensors and software have to get better. As a guess, going from 90% to 99% is the same effort as going 0% to 90%, software and hardware wise. Luckily, these diminuishing returns are (somewhat) offset by more resources being poured into development, and hardware costs coming down due to volume manufacturing.
lightcatcher 11y ago
Any estimate of how much the sensors as well as compute infrastructure cost in something like the Model S? $100, $1000, $10k, more? I'd love to learn more about the increasing "computerization" of cars. Do you know of any good publications, blogs, etc for someone to learn about the computer systems powering cars?
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  It's under $5K for cameras, radar, and onboard processing gear.

poutine 11y ago

The software exists today to allow a production VW Golf with stock sensors to self drive on the highway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHyw58hn4sM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHyw58hn4sM This stuff is coming fast...

jacquesm 11y ago
The way that steering wheel twitches would make me very nervous.
dognotdog 11y ago
It's no problem to autopilot on the highway today, 90-95% of the time. But that number needs to go even higher, still, before it can be unleashed on the public. And for that last edge, sensors and software have to get better. As a guess, going from 90% to 99% is the same effort as going 0% to 90%, software and hardware wise. Luckily, these diminuishing returns are (somewhat) offset by more resources being poured into development, and hardware costs coming down due to volume manufacturing.

lightcatcher 11y ago

Any estimate of how much the sensors as well as compute infrastructure cost in something like the Model S? $100, $1000, $10k, more? I'd love to learn more about the increasing "computerization" of cars. Do you know of any good publications, blogs, etc for someone to learn about the computer systems powering cars?

toomuchtodo 11y ago
It's under $5K for cameras, radar, and onboard processing gear.