3 ms·

Are you betting that it will go up, or are you just posting to a forum about your opinion? Big difference. I agree with your assessment of the difficulty of ma

by joshu 17y ago

Are you betting that it will go up, or are you just posting to a forum about your opinion? Big difference. I agree with your assessment of the difficulty of macroeconomic analysis. But it sounds like his details are more specific than that. I wonder if there are more interesting plays here; are there invest-able vehicles that we have access to that are going to do well if China does well AND if it does badly? I wonder if WMT would reap a profit either way.

jacquesm 17y ago
Betting that it will go up because I firmly believe that China is doing what it can to move forward and become a real world power. If the last two decades are any indication they seem to be doing so quite well. They are trying to implement as many lessons they learned from picking Hong Kong apart as they can without losing control, I'm not sure that they will manage in that goal, and it frightens me to think of what it would be like if China ever fell apart. So, will you bet that it will go down? Name your price. I've never formally analyzed my investment performance, but to date I've made roughly 20% of my total income over the past 15 years on investments, both in stocks and in start-ups. I've lost about half of that due to failed investments. If I would be more risk averse and less inclined to give people chances then I probably would have done a lot better than that but that's my nature. edit: re: > are there invest-able vehicles that we have access to that are going to do well if China does well AND if it does badly? That depends mostly on what effect Chinas doing will or badly will have on the world currency market. There is a lot of money to be made in a falling market but the timing is very difficult, much more so than in a rising market. In a rising market you may limit your profit if you mistime, in a falling market you can easily lose your shirt.

by joshu 17y ago

jacquesm 17y ago

Betting that it will go up because I firmly believe that China is doing what it can to move forward and become a real world power. If the last two decades are any indication they seem to be doing so quite well. They are trying to implement as many lessons they learned from picking Hong Kong apart as they can without losing control, I'm not sure that they will manage in that goal, and it frightens me to think of what it would be like if China ever fell apart. So, will you bet that it will go down? Name your price. I've never formally analyzed my investment performance, but to date I've made roughly 20% of my total income over the past 15 years on investments, both in stocks and in start-ups. I've lost about half of that due to failed investments. If I would be more risk averse and less inclined to give people chances then I probably would have done a lot better than that but that's my nature. edit: re: > are there invest-able vehicles that we have access to that are going to do well if China does well AND if it does badly? That depends mostly on what effect Chinas doing will or badly will have on the world currency market. There is a lot of money to be made in a falling market but the timing is very difficult, much more so than in a rising market. In a rising market you may limit your profit if you mistime, in a falling market you can easily lose your shirt.