3 ms·
Why not just estimate p(A - B | observed data) and be done with it?
by tristanz 11y ago
Why not just estimate p(A - B | observed data) and be done with it?
- yummyfajitas 11y agoBecause that's a lot harder. At VWO we do exactly this in our new SmartStats tool - we believe Bayesian stats are far more intuitive to the end user. But we've got a whole compute cluster running these calculations 24/7. For comparison, our old frequentist calculations were done in PHP at page render time. A formula that can be easily plugged into Excel does have value over a formula that requires someone to write a python script and do a monte carlo simulation. Evan's method is also nice in that it doesn't require a lot in terms of knowing your (possibly very small) conversion rate ahead of time.