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The WHO did a massive study[0] and actually found nuclear killed far fewer people per watt than all others, even solar: Energy Source Death Rate
by brownbat 11y ago
The WHO did a massive study[0] and actually found nuclear killed far fewer people per watt than all others, even solar:
Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh)
Coal – world average 161
Coal – China 278
Coal – USA 15
Oil 36
Natural Gas 4
Biofuel/Biomass 12
Peat 12
Solar (rooftop) 0.44
Wind 0.15
Hydro 0.10
Hydro - world including Banqiao) 1.4
Nuclear 0.04
Note that rooftop construction is one of the most dangerous jobs in the US, with high mortality rates from falls.[1]
Coal mining is extremely hazardous, it would top this chart even just looking at production. Folding in air pollution deaths from burning coal and you add thousands of deaths per day.[2]
Each year coal and oil kill more people than the entire 60 year history of nuclear, including every nuclear disaster.
Even if we focus on worst case scenarios, nuclear is safer. The impact of Chernobyl is wildly overestimated by the public.[3]
For hydro, let's just note that a dam failure in Banqiao killed 171,000. The highest death estimates for Chernobyl (and this is including expected early deaths from radiation exposure that still haven't appeared a few decades after the incident) and you're looking at maybe 4,000.
You could add a Chernobyl every year, even take the most aggressive estimates for early deaths caused by that accident, then ignore all air pollution deaths, and coal and oil would still be more dangerous. They're just that insanely deadly an industry. Nuclear's worst case is safer than coal and oil's average.
On cost I think you're mistaken too, nuclear remaining an incredibly cheap source of power per watt, but power economics are complicated and that'd take another discussion. All I can say is that this was the standard wisdom of everyone I knew who worked in the energy industry, despite occasional scare stories in magazines about how the "true" cost of nuclear is disguised by subsidies - the math doesn't quite add up.[4]
[0] Energy deathprints: http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/deaths-per-twh-for-all-energy-sources.html http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/deaths-per-twh-for-all-ener...
[1] http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfar0020.pdf http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfar0020.pdf
[2] Studies on air pollution deaths (spoiler: among the leading contributing factors to mortality worldwide): http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61766-8/fulltext http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67... ; http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v525/n7569/full/nature15371.html http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v525/n7569/full/nature1...
[3] An overview of the actual mortality impact of Chernobyl found it responsible for a few dozen deaths in emergency workers (fewer than 50, and some of those dying 20 years after the accident). It might be possible to eventually tie a few thousand early deaths to the incident, but we're still waiting, decades after it happened. In general, radiation hazards were widely exaggerated. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/
[4] Admittedly biased source, but it runs a few publically available numbers, even nuclear projects with cost overruns look better than some renewable projects: http://nuclearradiophobia.blogspot.com/p/cost-of-nuclear-power.html http://nuclearradiophobia.blogspot.com/p/cost-of-nuclear-pow...
I mean, ideally you get a mix of both sources, because they serve different purposes on the grid, but your bursty diurnal power isn't meant to serve as your cheap main source of power.
- zik 11y agoInteresting references thanks yet "official deaths" inherently underestimates the caused by nuclear energy. For instance there are only 28 official deaths for the Chernobyl disaster [1]. The WHO gives the number as "up to 4000 could eventually die" [2]. And some researchers give the number as "985,000, mostly from cancer" [3]. Since it's so hard to tally long term harm from such a hard to pin down source such stats are very hard to accurately quantify. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_di... [2] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/ [3] http://www.globalresearch.ca/new-book-concludes-chernobyl-death-toll-985-000-mostly-from-cancer/20908 http://www.globalresearch.ca/new-book-concludes-chernobyl-de...
- rtpg 11y agoeven with your highball estimate of 200x the WHO amount, that still puts Nuclear at <10% of the Coal amount
- brownbat 11y agoYou're right that it's often hard to pin down long term impacts, but I don't think this is a debate with quite as wide a field of credible estimates as you suggest. The 985,000 figure comes from an interesting source. It originated in a book that peer reviewers savaged, for, among other things, making up numbers without providing any justification whatsoever and ignoring the scientific method. M. I. Balonov decried the book, claiming "it has very little scientific merit while being highly misleading to the lay reader." He called it science fiction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the_Catastrophe_for_People_and_the_Environment#Reviews https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the... While you're right that there are hard problems in long term forecasts, but there are entire fields of study, dosimetry and epidemiology, that have had smart people toiling away on those problems for their entire career, and this is maybe the most widely studied industrial disaster in history. We have made enormous strides in how to measure environmental radiation, doses received, and the correlation between those and increases in mortality. Individuals are hard, but population estimates are actually easier to calibrate over time. So if you write a book containing a sensationalist number to get some headlines, researchers will be able to tell you're pulling their leg. As rtpg says though, this is a bit of a moot point, because, sure, let's call it 985,000, then nuclear remains still the safest form of power by an enormous margin.