7 ms·

Here's Scott Wiener's post about meeting 2040 housing growth plans: https://medium.com/@Scott_Wiener/want-to-know-why-the-bay-area-has-a-housing-crisis-read-thi

by musesum 11y ago

Here's Scott Wiener's post about meeting 2040 housing growth plans: https://medium.com/@Scott_Wiener/want-to-know-why-the-bay-area-has-a-housing-crisis-read-this-map-b4d7a56d12f1 https://medium.com/@Scott_Wiener/want-to-know-why-the-bay-ar... Looks like East bay is falling behind schedule. Here's housing prices since crash peek:http://west.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/hugolefebvre-changeinhousingprice.jpg http://west.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/hugolefebvre-ch... I live several doors down from the old KFC. I miss the old Sugoi Sushi that was there - but am fine with the new construction. Am lucky to have rent control. Right now, if I move away, I wouldn't be able to afford moving back.

zyxley 11y ago
> Am lucky to have rent control. Right now, if I move away, I wouldn't be able to afford moving back. SF-style widepsread rent control seems like part of the problem to me, in the sense that it hides the true extent of market distortions from many people living in the area (especially the demographics most likely to vote), while incentivizing weird and unethical behavior to circumvent it by developers who could probably be nudged into tenant-friendly density increases under more sane conditions.
- musesum 11y ago
  Owners have an incentive to keep supply low and to maximize the value of their asset. Next, add AirBnB to add yet more demand. Crazy is the new normal. Homeowner associations organize the vote during off-election years, as per http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/02/so-you-want-to-fix-the-housing-crisis/ http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/02/so-you-want-to-fix-the-hous... Removing rent-control would accelerate the displacement. A friend saw his rent nearly triple in 1999. So, he moved back to a more affordable Paris. He was developing a super cool visual-music platform. A neighbor is developing really cool music apps for the iPad. I am doing iOS based art tools. GAFFTA is in the neighborhood. There are advantages to encouraging a cultural mix.
- simoncion 11y ago
  > ...rent control seems like part of the problem to me, in the sense that it hides the true extent of market distortions from many people living in the area... musesum mentions: > Am lucky to have rent control. Right now, if I move away, I wouldn't be able to afford moving back. Everyone I speak to in my building [0] is very aware of the current ludicrously high rents in the city and how it limits their ability to keep a slumlord in line. I can't imagine the situation is substantially different in any other rent-controlled building in the city. Also, be aware that SF's rent-control is more correctly termed rent-stabilization. Vacated units can have their rent set to any rate. Stabilization only kicks in once that unit is occupied. > ...while incentivizing weird and unethical behavior to circumvent it by developers who could probably be nudged... I honestly don't know what you're talking about here. Were you aware that rent control in SF doesn't apply to new construction [1]; only to housing built or occupied before June 13, 1979? [2] If you were aware of that, would you be so kind as to tell me what you are referring to? :) [0] Including the old lady who is afflicted with alzheimer's. [1] Unless -as happened with Sangiacomo's Trinity Place on Market street- a special arrangement is reached to destroy existing rent-controlled units, but have a 1:1 replacement in the new construction. [2] https://www.sftu.org/rentcontrol/#Rent_Control_Coverage https://www.sftu.org/rentcontrol/#Rent_Control_Coverage
  - musesum 11y ago
    Wow, I didn't realize there was a 1979 cutoff. Glad to know there's a perk to this oven/icebox victorian.
    - simoncion 11y ago
      > Wow, I didn't realize there was a 1979 cutoff. Frankly, it seems that that most folks who speak in public forums (landlords and developers included) don't understand this. It drives me batshit. (No offence intended. :) ) > Glad to know there's a perk to this oven/icebox victorian. From what I've seen and heard about those things, I bet it's just about the only perk, eh? :(
      - musesum 11y ago
- refurb 11y ago
  SF-style widepsread rent control seems like part of the problem to me You raise a good question. What would rent in SF look like without rent control? Thinking through the process, I imagine something like: 1. Rent for everyone would have gone up over time 2. Renters would have been slowly forced out as rent increases exceeded their incomes 3. However, it's likely that there would have been a lot more units opening up over time. That likely would have slowed the increase in rent. I'm certainly not saying that a "no rent control" situation would be ideal, but I'm wondering if it's just made the rent situation in SF much worse than it would have been otherwise.
  - simoncion 11y ago
    > I'm certainly not saying that a "no rent control" situation would be ideal, but I'm wondering if it's just made the rent situation in SF much worse than it would have been otherwise. I feel that a good proxy for a world without rent stabilization is the condo market. Figure out how much the monthly payment for the low-end and the average condo is, and I suspect that that's where a city full of unstablized rental units would be.
  - sampo 11y ago
    > I'm certainly not saying that a "no rent control" situation would be ideal Quoting Paul Krugman from 15 years ago: "The analysis of rent control is among the best-understood issues in all of economics, and -- among economists, anyway -- one of the least controversial. In 1992 a poll of the American Economic Association found 93 percent of its members agreeing that ''a ceiling on rents reduces the quality and quantity of housing.'' Almost every freshman-level textbook contains a case study on rent control, using its known adverse side effects to illustrate the principles of supply and demand." http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/07/opinion/reckonings-a-rent-affair.html http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/07/opinion/reckonings-a-rent-...
    - refurb 11y ago
      I'm well aware of the current position of economists on rent control. That said, if there was no rent control in SF, then slowly, over time, all low income folks would be forced to leave the city. That is likely an undesirable outcome for SF voters.
fche 11y ago
"Am lucky to have rent control." You are (party to) using the state to withhold justly earned economic value from your landlord.
- cbd1984 11y ago
  > You are (party to) using the state to withhold justly earned economic value from your landlord. The state is what allows a landlord to be a landlord in the first place, by making a society stable enough that property ownership is a matter of laws and contracts as opposed to guns and groups with guns.
  - hugh4 11y ago
    Sure, the state is what allows you to be alive at all, because without it you'd probably have been killed by or enslaved by roving Mad Max style marauders. Therefore you owe your life to the State and they can demand anything at all from you and you shouldn't complain. Right?
    - Apocryphon 11y ago
      Welcome to the social contract
      - Turing_Machine 11y ago
        You (and others on this thread, on both sides) are pretending that there's no gradation between "roving bands of cannibal looters" (the "Mad Max" scenario) and "Tyrannical government controls every single aspect of your daily life" (the "1984" scenario), when in fact there is a very large amount of space between those two scenarios. That is a fundamentally dishonest argument. There are honest discussions of exactly where the boundaries on government power should lie, but this isn't one of them.
  - akgerber 11y ago
    Beyond that, the state is who sends a sheriff to evict someone from a house when they don't pay rent to a landlord.
nulltype 11y ago
So there's a map of SF meeting its housing goal. What is the goal and how is it set? According to these graphs of housing stock vs population: http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2015/02/04/sfs_population_is_growing_way_faster_than_its_housing_stock.php http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2015/02/04/sfs_population_is_g... the goal for SF may need to be pretty high.

by musesum 11y ago

zyxley 11y ago

> Am lucky to have rent control. Right now, if I move away, I wouldn't be able to afford moving back. SF-style widepsread rent control seems like part of the problem to me, in the sense that it hides the true extent of market distortions from many people living in the area (especially the demographics most likely to vote), while incentivizing weird and unethical behavior to circumvent it by developers who could probably be nudged into tenant-friendly density increases under more sane conditions.

musesum 11y ago
Owners have an incentive to keep supply low and to maximize the value of their asset. Next, add AirBnB to add yet more demand. Crazy is the new normal. Homeowner associations organize the vote during off-election years, as per http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/02/so-you-want-to-fix-the-housing-crisis/ http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/02/so-you-want-to-fix-the-hous... Removing rent-control would accelerate the displacement. A friend saw his rent nearly triple in 1999. So, he moved back to a more affordable Paris. He was developing a super cool visual-music platform. A neighbor is developing really cool music apps for the iPad. I am doing iOS based art tools. GAFFTA is in the neighborhood. There are advantages to encouraging a cultural mix.
simoncion 11y ago
> ...rent control seems like part of the problem to me, in the sense that it hides the true extent of market distortions from many people living in the area... musesum mentions: > Am lucky to have rent control. Right now, if I move away, I wouldn't be able to afford moving back. Everyone I speak to in my building [0] is very aware of the current ludicrously high rents in the city and how it limits their ability to keep a slumlord in line. I can't imagine the situation is substantially different in any other rent-controlled building in the city. Also, be aware that SF's rent-control is more correctly termed rent-stabilization. Vacated units can have their rent set to any rate. Stabilization only kicks in once that unit is occupied. > ...while incentivizing weird and unethical behavior to circumvent it by developers who could probably be nudged... I honestly don't know what you're talking about here. Were you aware that rent control in SF doesn't apply to new construction [1]; only to housing built or occupied before June 13, 1979? [2] If you were aware of that, would you be so kind as to tell me what you are referring to? :) [0] Including the old lady who is afflicted with alzheimer's. [1] Unless -as happened with Sangiacomo's Trinity Place on Market street- a special arrangement is reached to destroy existing rent-controlled units, but have a 1:1 replacement in the new construction. [2] https://www.sftu.org/rentcontrol/#Rent_Control_Coverage https://www.sftu.org/rentcontrol/#Rent_Control_Coverage
- musesum 11y ago
  Wow, I didn't realize there was a 1979 cutoff. Glad to know there's a perk to this oven/icebox victorian.
  - simoncion 11y ago
    > Wow, I didn't realize there was a 1979 cutoff. Frankly, it seems that that most folks who speak in public forums (landlords and developers included) don't understand this. It drives me batshit. (No offence intended. :) ) > Glad to know there's a perk to this oven/icebox victorian. From what I've seen and heard about those things, I bet it's just about the only perk, eh? :(
    - musesum 11y ago
refurb 11y ago
SF-style widepsread rent control seems like part of the problem to me You raise a good question. What would rent in SF look like without rent control? Thinking through the process, I imagine something like: 1. Rent for everyone would have gone up over time 2. Renters would have been slowly forced out as rent increases exceeded their incomes 3. However, it's likely that there would have been a lot more units opening up over time. That likely would have slowed the increase in rent. I'm certainly not saying that a "no rent control" situation would be ideal, but I'm wondering if it's just made the rent situation in SF much worse than it would have been otherwise.
- simoncion 11y ago
  > I'm certainly not saying that a "no rent control" situation would be ideal, but I'm wondering if it's just made the rent situation in SF much worse than it would have been otherwise. I feel that a good proxy for a world without rent stabilization is the condo market. Figure out how much the monthly payment for the low-end and the average condo is, and I suspect that that's where a city full of unstablized rental units would be.
- sampo 11y ago
  > I'm certainly not saying that a "no rent control" situation would be ideal Quoting Paul Krugman from 15 years ago: "The analysis of rent control is among the best-understood issues in all of economics, and -- among economists, anyway -- one of the least controversial. In 1992 a poll of the American Economic Association found 93 percent of its members agreeing that ''a ceiling on rents reduces the quality and quantity of housing.'' Almost every freshman-level textbook contains a case study on rent control, using its known adverse side effects to illustrate the principles of supply and demand." http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/07/opinion/reckonings-a-rent-affair.html http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/07/opinion/reckonings-a-rent-...
  - refurb 11y ago
    I'm well aware of the current position of economists on rent control. That said, if there was no rent control in SF, then slowly, over time, all low income folks would be forced to leave the city. That is likely an undesirable outcome for SF voters.

fche 11y ago

"Am lucky to have rent control." You are (party to) using the state to withhold justly earned economic value from your landlord.

cbd1984 11y ago
> You are (party to) using the state to withhold justly earned economic value from your landlord. The state is what allows a landlord to be a landlord in the first place, by making a society stable enough that property ownership is a matter of laws and contracts as opposed to guns and groups with guns.
- hugh4 11y ago
  Sure, the state is what allows you to be alive at all, because without it you'd probably have been killed by or enslaved by roving Mad Max style marauders. Therefore you owe your life to the State and they can demand anything at all from you and you shouldn't complain. Right?
  - Apocryphon 11y ago
    Welcome to the social contract
    - Turing_Machine 11y ago
      You (and others on this thread, on both sides) are pretending that there's no gradation between "roving bands of cannibal looters" (the "Mad Max" scenario) and "Tyrannical government controls every single aspect of your daily life" (the "1984" scenario), when in fact there is a very large amount of space between those two scenarios. That is a fundamentally dishonest argument. There are honest discussions of exactly where the boundaries on government power should lie, but this isn't one of them.
- akgerber 11y ago
  Beyond that, the state is who sends a sheriff to evict someone from a house when they don't pay rent to a landlord.

nulltype 11y ago

So there's a map of SF meeting its housing goal. What is the goal and how is it set? According to these graphs of housing stock vs population: http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2015/02/04/sfs_population_is_growing_way_faster_than_its_housing_stock.php http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2015/02/04/sfs_population_is_g... the goal for SF may need to be pretty high.