Horace Dediu has looked at how quickly technologies are adopted. He doesn't see any increase in speed of technology adoption (he said this in a recent "Critica

Horace Dediu has looked at how quickly technologies are adopted. He doesn't see any increase in speed of technology adoption (he said this in a recent "Critical Path" podcast), which he was expecting and looking for. https://twitter.com/asymco/status/631108777333403648 https://twitter.com/asymco/status/631108777333403648 Technology becomes more complex with time, so new technologies are necessarily more complex, and require an increasing amount of effort to develop. The Wright Bros could research and develop an airplane on their own. I see no chance that two brothers can invent and implement a fusion reactor or spaceflight to Mars on their own.