4 ms·

I don't know, I'd be willing to bet twitter usage is up compared to 4 years ago. Also, stock price != coolness, and further coolness != making more money. Isn

I don't know, I'd be willing to bet twitter usage is up compared to 4 years ago. Also, stock price != coolness, and further coolness != making more money. Isn't that what this story is about?

bandrami 11y ago
But then again stock price != making more money. Particularly for non-dividend-paying firms.
- sinxoveretothex 11y ago
  Would you care to expand on this one? It seems to me that stock price is correlated with more money: if I have X stock options worth Y dollars each, I effectively have X*Y dollars worth of stock. If stock price increase by 1 dollars, I have X dollars more than I did before. No?
  - nikanj 11y ago
    I think they mean the stock price of the company is not well correlated with the amount of money the company is making
  - blumkvist 11y ago
    Apple often beats expectations and trades lower after the earnings call.
    - forgetsusername 11y ago
      No, Apple often outdoes its previous quarterly results, but fails to meet lofty analyst expectations, so its price falls after earnings. Exceeding expectations with a price drop afterwards is inexplicable.
      - dnr 11y ago
        I think I remember that happening to Google at least once. There are expectations and "expectations". Analysts' published expectations are often different than the ones they believe privately, and the expectation might be to exceed the "expectation".
    - dragonwriter 11y ago
      Beating published analyst expectations isn't the same as beating the actual expectations of investors. One might reasonably expect the actual market expectations to be loosely correlated with analyst's published expectations, and they probably are, but its probably only loosely correlated.
  - bandrami 11y ago
    If stock price increase by 1 dollars, I have X dollars more than I did before. No? No. Only if you sell it right now. A lot of problems come from people thinking stocks are more liquid than they are.
  - dragonwriter 11y ago
    > It seems to me that stock price is correlated with more money: if I have X stock options worth Y dollars each, I effectively have XY dollars worth of stock Sure, but the "market" price of stock isn't really the value of every* share, its roughly the marginal price of the last/next share purchased or sold, but the more you want to trade, the farther from the market price the value will be. And changes to the market clearing price don't tell you about changes to the supply and demand curves, just where they intersect. So, for any but a small quantity of stock, you can't tell what the real change in the realizable value of your holdings is just from the change in the market price, since there's no guarantee that a change of $1 in market price equates to a change of $1/share in the price you'll get if you try to sell a particular quantity of a stock. We tend to ignore that when placing a valuation on a portfolio because if you don't ignore it, you can't get a valuation. But those valuations are approximations, at best.
rdtsc 11y ago
> bet twitter usage is up compared to 4 years ago. It probably is. But probably not as much as everything believed it would be. Coolness is about making money in case, but indirectly. If investors see others not being interested in Twitter and not regarding it as cool, they will pull out. I understand Twitter's primary revenue tool is advertisement. That requires users to advertise to.

I don't know, I'd be willing to bet twitter usage is up compared to 4 years ago. Also, stock price != coolness, and further coolness != making more money. Isn't that what this story is about?

bandrami 11y ago

But then again stock price != making more money. Particularly for non-dividend-paying firms.

sinxoveretothex 11y ago
Would you care to expand on this one? It seems to me that stock price is correlated with more money: if I have X stock options worth Y dollars each, I effectively have X*Y dollars worth of stock. If stock price increase by 1 dollars, I have X dollars more than I did before. No?
- nikanj 11y ago
  I think they mean the stock price of the company is not well correlated with the amount of money the company is making
- blumkvist 11y ago
  Apple often beats expectations and trades lower after the earnings call.
  - forgetsusername 11y ago
    No, Apple often outdoes its previous quarterly results, but fails to meet lofty analyst expectations, so its price falls after earnings. Exceeding expectations with a price drop afterwards is inexplicable.
    - dnr 11y ago
      I think I remember that happening to Google at least once. There are expectations and "expectations". Analysts' published expectations are often different than the ones they believe privately, and the expectation might be to exceed the "expectation".
  - dragonwriter 11y ago
    Beating published analyst expectations isn't the same as beating the actual expectations of investors. One might reasonably expect the actual market expectations to be loosely correlated with analyst's published expectations, and they probably are, but its probably only loosely correlated.
- bandrami 11y ago
  If stock price increase by 1 dollars, I have X dollars more than I did before. No? No. Only if you sell it right now. A lot of problems come from people thinking stocks are more liquid than they are.
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  > It seems to me that stock price is correlated with more money: if I have X stock options worth Y dollars each, I effectively have XY dollars worth of stock Sure, but the "market" price of stock isn't really the value of every* share, its roughly the marginal price of the last/next share purchased or sold, but the more you want to trade, the farther from the market price the value will be. And changes to the market clearing price don't tell you about changes to the supply and demand curves, just where they intersect. So, for any but a small quantity of stock, you can't tell what the real change in the realizable value of your holdings is just from the change in the market price, since there's no guarantee that a change of $1 in market price equates to a change of $1/share in the price you'll get if you try to sell a particular quantity of a stock. We tend to ignore that when placing a valuation on a portfolio because if you don't ignore it, you can't get a valuation. But those valuations are approximations, at best.

rdtsc 11y ago

> bet twitter usage is up compared to 4 years ago. It probably is. But probably not as much as everything believed it would be. Coolness is about making money in case, but indirectly. If investors see others not being interested in Twitter and not regarding it as cool, they will pull out. I understand Twitter's primary revenue tool is advertisement. That requires users to advertise to.