"Although there is some truth to this, the past tends to be only a limited predictor for the future" A great example of this is Malthus. His predictions were a

"Although there is some truth to this, the past tends to be only a limited predictor for the future" A great example of this is Malthus. His predictions were absolutely correct based on the history of the world until that point. The reason he was so wrong was because the world changed so dramatically.