Ah, but now that your argument is based on decreasing returns we can just do expected value analysis. Fortunately, many people have already done this, includin

Ah, but now that your argument is based on decreasing returns we can just do expected value analysis. Fortunately, many people have already done this, including Betterment: https://www.betterment.com/resources/personal-finance/safety-net-funds-why-traditional-advice-is-wrong/ https://www.betterment.com/resources/personal-finance/safety... Weighted by the probability of happening, you are better off investing all your money. Period.