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Bitcoin uses a proof of work system as a form of security in a decentralised system. At the end of the day, there's a certain cost per block, which approaches t
by IkmoIkmo 11y ago
Bitcoin uses a proof of work system as a form of security in a decentralised system. At the end of the day, there's a certain cost per block, which approaches the reward for mining that block. Today you can fit hundreds of transactions into one such block, imagine a block like a mail package that holds all the world's transactions of the last 10 minutes or so, which is sent to everyone else who record those transactions, and imagine posting that package has a price. It's technically an incorrect analogy but it's just that, an analogy. But here's the thing, the block is digital and as bandwidth, storage and CPU inevitably scales up, you can eventually fit millions of transactions in that block, making each individual transaction much cheaper (despite the fact block rewards go up, too). And that's been the trend so far, every year transaction costs drop and electricity costs per value of money sent drops. It's quite likely that if bitcoin does become a popularly used worldwide digital ledger that the cost of electricity would be pretty trivial, to register any entry on the ledger (which could represent say 0.0001 bitcoin, but it could also represent a barrel of oil, or a million barrels of oil or a billion dollars, if you wanted to. Once you have a ledger you can write to you can make it represent anything you want really).
In short, the claim isn't incorrect today, it uses a lot of energy relative to its utility as a value network, but it's one of those things where the theory on paper, and the current trends in practice, show that the problem will solve itself over time. It reminds me of the endless stream of journalists decades ago who kept saying solar had no future because its embodied energy was more than it could generate, which was a partial truth in the 1980s and one that was rarely mentioned alongside the fact in theory it didn't have to be this way and in practice the trend showed it was getting solved over time. Today payback times of embodied energy went down from 50 years (for panels with a 20 year lifespan) to a fraction of a single year. Funny enough, you can still find people saying these things to this very day, ah well.
If you want to know the rough numbers... well money spent on getting x reward will approach x. Assuming 75% of the money miners spend on getting the block reward (the other 25% going to manufacturing or procuring the hardware, management etc etc), and knowing the price of a bitcoin is $240 and every day roughly 3600 coins are mined, then electricity expenditure is about $650k per day worldwide. Worldwide electricity consumption is about $3 billion (very much a back of the envelope calculation) a day at a hypothetical 10c a kwh, for the US alone total energy expenditures exceed a trillion a year. Bitcoin today is relatively wasteful for the utility it provides today that's for certain, but it's looking pretty good for the future, and in the grand scheme of things it's a really tiny operation in absolute terms.
What's interesting is that a lot of the bitcoin mining has sought out cheap electricity, e.g. Iceland where renewables are between 99 and 100% of electricity, there's a limited environmental impact to mining there and as prices are so cheap, multiple big miners have set up shop there in the past.
Finally it's important to realise that the cost of validating a transaction is pretty much near zero. The electricity waste is in the proof of work, which is hashing and it's just as hard whether you hash 1 or 1 trillion transactions. Further, the amount wasted is based on the block reward which is ridiculously high in the first years of bitcoin because of its distribution system. When the block reward drops, the amount of waste drops, and every day this inches closer to a more market-driven price of a transaction, thereby reward for mining and thereby the cost of waste invested to reap that reward. In short we're seeing, by design, a few years of ridiculously high waste-per-value transmitted to essentially kickstart the bitcoin ecosystem and distribute bitcoins, which drops every year. So again, the waste isn't necessarily tied to a transaction, whether a block has 0 transactions or a million, is no different for hashing and 99% of the reward today is still the block reward (i.e., irrespective of the amount of transactions). So anyone citing a cost per transaction figure is very misleading even though it's not incorrect in some way, because that cost is not marginal but fixed and exists even if there are 0 transactions and is therefore not a 'per transaction' cost. A bit like if you maintain a bridge for $100 a day and 1 person walks on it, doesn't mean the cost of walking on the bridge is $100 per person, it's actually 0 because if you walk 0 or 100 people over the bridge, the fixed cost is always $100 and the marginal cost is always $0. Obviously a bridge has capacity limitations, but bitcoin as a digital ledger has much fewer. The total bandwidth of bitcoin today, no joke, is 1 mb per 10 minutes, or about 1.7 kb per second. We could increase that by orders of magnitude in the coming years and be okay, meaning whatever 'cost per transaction' anyone cites would also drop by orders of magnitude. Anyway I'm rambling but the cost/waste argument always feels a bit disingenuous given a medium to long-term context in which it gets less wasteful every year, and given in the short-term it's pretty minor in absolute terms anyway.
- sylvinus 11y agoCan you share your thoughts on the downward pressure the miners put on the price of a bitcoin because they have to sell their rewards to pay for electricity? That seems to be compensated right now by some growth in public interest but won't the price fall instantly if growth stagnates? (In turn causing more miners to stop and the security (thus interest) of the network to fall as well?)
- eru 11y agoThe downward pressure is self-limiting: if less people mine, mining difficulty drops automatically.
- IkmoIkmo 11y ago> Can you share your thoughts on the downward pressure the miners put on the price of a bitcoin because they have to sell their rewards to pay for electricity? There's not a lot to say you haven't already said. Mining is literally an increase of the money supply that devaluates each unit of that money, in this case. If the price remains the same, that must mean that its offset by an equal increase in demand. And indeed if the public interest stagnates, that offset won't happen and bitcoins will devaluate, you're absolutely right about that. But I'm not sure if there's some interesting 'snowball' effect going on here. Generally people withdraw their money from any investment that does not grow and has stagnated because there's no ROI there, so even if there was no bitcoin block rewards it's likely that if public demand for bitcoin stagnated to nothing that it'd still lead to people saying there's no ROI in bitcoin for me and as public interest has waned the utility of bitcoin won't grow either so I'm selling off my holdings. Such a mass sell-off would cause the price to fall, too. It's no different from say if there were 5 million people on Facebook and all of them only had 3-4 friends on there and public interest stagnated, people would leave and the value of FB would drop. Bitcoin block rewards aren't really a necessary aspect of that failure scenario, it can fail without it. If bitcoin can't beat inflation (which is at 9% per year), i.e. bitcoin isn't growing by 9% a year or so in adoption, then it's dead in the water regardless of inflation because that means that say assuming there are 5 million bitcoin users in the world, that in 10 years there'll be only 12m, and that's just nothing, imagine Facebook took 10 years to grow from 5m to 12m users, it'd have long been acquired by some other company or shut down and would have made no waves whatsoever. So bitcoin mining or not, if public interest stagnates for long enough, bitcoin's dead. When I say 'dead' I mean as in 'insignificant because it's so small even if it's still alive', dead like myspace or something like that. If the price drops, miners will leave, but that makes mining for others easier. So it reaches a new equilibrium where the incentives to secure the system are lower, but the rewards to cheat the system are, too. Security doesn't really change much in bitcoin as it just finds a new equilibrium and as the incentives for security and anti-security move in the same direction. So it could still be secure, but if public interest stagnates and there's no adoption, no investment, no companies looking to build products and services etc etc, then it's insignificant anyway and will continue to decline until its fully usurped by alternatives. An interesting idea is that inflation is set to halve in about 10 months from about 9% today to 4.2% or so. Assuming that new demand (due to companies like Coinbase continuing to grow) remains the same, while inflation halves, then we might see price increases again. And bitcoin sort of revolves around those, every time the price is set to increase you get this obvious flock of people investing short-term, a bubble emerging and that's when its in the headlines, when the message boards are flooded, when VCs invest more money etc. Without those bubbles bitcoin would probably have faded into obscurity by now. A lot of that block reward halving already priced in, in theory, but it'll be fun to see how it plays out this time around. Anyway so to answer your question, I don't think bitcoin has to worry about security if growth stagnates long enough, it'd be a bit similar to worrying about whether typewriters are ergonomic enough in a world where its completely irrelevant. Bitcoin has to grow, if it doesn't then its dead and its security isn't very important (although as I mentioned earlier, it'd just settle at a new level. Security incentives sort of self-adjusts to the value it has to secure).