Those two possibilities vary hugely in their time consideration! 1 considers the far future outcome ("you go on with your life") but 2 only considers the next f

Those two possibilities vary hugely in their time consideration! 1 considers the far future outcome ("you go on with your life") but 2 only considers the next few months. 2a you find out you can do it and enjoy it, great career path for the next n years, 2b you find out you can't hack it and either quit or get fired, 2bi you then do what you would have done in 1, not a huge opportunity cost, 2bii your ego suffers a huge blow and you fall into a pit of depression and drunkenness and self-doubt about ever learning anything again and you: 2biiα eventually get out and do 1 (larger opportunity cost and potential permanent damage), or: 2biiβ die soon after... A lot of people really want to avoid the 2bii tree and will shrink away from any action that seems to have a chance of leading from the bearable status quo to there.