4 ms·
I find it interesting that betting houses have gotten the winners right for a few years already. http://www.ibtimes.com/pulse/nobel-prize-2015-betting-odds-who
by GFischer 11y ago
I find it interesting that betting houses have gotten the winners right for a few years already.
http://www.ibtimes.com/pulse/nobel-prize-2015-betting-odds-who-are-literature-peace-physics-favorites-2127359 http://www.ibtimes.com/pulse/nobel-prize-2015-betting-odds-w...
Something similar to the DraftKings affair maybe, where someone or several someones with insider information are using it for their advantage?
She wasn't a dark horse to win though, she's been favored for at least a year now:
http://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/nonfiction-deserves-nobel http://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/nonfiction...
So it might be a case of a Prediction Game doing right
I remember from some years ago the Hollywood Stock Exchange ( www.hsx.com/ ), an online game where people "invested" on movies, was used as a "crowd wisdom" source for decisions on whether to fund movies, etc, and was fairly accurate IIRC.
Maybe there's a similar opportunity for other fields? A Startup Stock Exchange game? :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Stock_Exchange https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Stock_Exchange
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
- hullo 11y agoThis is actually only the second time in 12 years that the favorite per the Ladbrokes odds has gotten the award, the last being Pamuk in 2006. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/123058/who-will-win-nobel-prize-literature http://www.newrepublic.com/article/123058/who-will-win-nobel...
- GFischer 11y agoI stand corrected, it seems the Literature nobel prize is very hard to guess correctly, they did find out last year's prize early but it was because of a leak. http://www.cbc.ca/news/arts/nobel-prize-in-literature-won-by-french-writer-patrick-modiano-1.2793454 http://www.cbc.ca/news/arts/nobel-prize-in-literature-won-by... "Betting on Modiano to win the Nobel surged in the last week, raising questions about a possible leak. David Williams of bookmaker Ladbrokes said Modiano's odds had shortened from 100-1 a few months ago to 10-1 before the announcement." Edit: I still think a "Startup Stock Exchange" could be fun, maybe based on CrunchBase or something :)