I think the most interesting here is this line: "All in all, among the different classes of data (raw and rescaled), we observe that 1) casualties are power law

I think the most interesting here is this line: "All in all, among the different classes of data (raw and rescaled), we observe that 1) casualties are power law distributed." If I understand the math correctly, power law distributed distributions arise when there is some cascade effect, for example cities where the biggest cities also grow the fastest. Investment income would be another example - the more money you have, the faster it grows. That to me suggests that what happens is that small conflicts can grow into larger conflicts, and more importantly the larger the conflict the more likely it is to grow bigger. I don't know what that says about how we ought to minimize the risk of big wars - except maybe to resolve them peacefully while they are still small conflicts.