3 ms·
I think the correct term is survivorship bias. I like this quote from Nassim Talebs book The Black Swan - "The cemetery of failed restaurants is very silent". I
by scoreponok 11y ago
I think the correct term is survivorship bias. I like this quote from Nassim Talebs book The Black Swan - "The cemetery of failed restaurants is very silent". I also very much like this example of the bias:
"During World War II, the statistician Abraham Wald took survivorship bias into his calculations when considering how to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. Researchers from the Center for Naval Analyses had conducted a study of the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions, and had recommended that armor be added to the areas that showed the most damage. Wald noted that the study only considered the aircraft that had survived their missions — the bombers that had been shot down were not present for the damage assessment. The holes in the returning aircraft, then, represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still return home safely. Wald proposed that the Navy instead reinforce the areas where the returning aircraft were unscathed, since those were the areas that, if hit, would cause the plane to be lost."