To your specific point about semiconductor fabrication: It's much harder to scale 28nm down to 14nm than to go from say... 65nm to 32nm. Quantum effects become

To your specific point about semiconductor fabrication: It's much harder to scale 28nm down to 14nm than to go from say... 65nm to 32nm. Quantum effects become much more prevalent. All sorts of new materials and technologies must be used. Even with Qualcomm's help[1], SMIC's 28nm process was delayed by a year. The first chips came off the line last month, putting them 5 years behind modern fab tech. Though companies like SMIC are playing catch-up, it will take a lot of R&D to get to where Intel is today. Speaking of R&D: Intel's R&D budget is five times SMIC's revenue.[2] To your more general point about surpassing the US in "the next couple of years": I seriously doubt it. The US has many advantages that we take for granted. Developing countries have a huge problem with brain drain. Many of their most talented citizens immigrate to the US or EU. The US has relatively little corruption. It has a large, wealthy domestic market. It has the most prestigious universities. Lastly, the US has plenty of capital and a culture of entrepreneurship. We're so used to these things that we hardly even notice them. But for developing countries, these are massive issues. 1. http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1322988 http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1322988 2. Last quarter, Intel spent $3 billion on R&D. SMIC's revenue for the same quarter was $547 million: http://www.smics.com/eng/press/press_releases_details.php?id=299842 http://www.smics.com/eng/press/press_releases_details.php?id...