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To waffle on this point: He has a higher (double) chance of picking a goat if you've picked the car. So by unplannedly revealing a goat, he gives you more infor
by qu4z-2 11y ago
To waffle on this point: He has a higher (double) chance of picking a goat if you've picked the car. So by unplannedly revealing a goat, he gives you more information about whether you're in a world where you've picked the car, or one where you've picked a goat.
If you pick randomly between a fair coin and a double-headed coin, there's a 50/50 chance of picking either. If Monty then flips the coin and it comes up heads, that suggests you're more likely to be in a world where you've picked the biased coin. If, on the other hand, Monty deliberately takes your coin and places it so that it's heads (and he was gonna do that whatever coin you picked) then you have no new information.