3 ms·
If the things you mentioned actually happen, they will happen by 2035, or by 2045 at the very latest (if they didn't, by that time, that's because people don't
by p1esk 11y ago
If the things you mentioned actually happen, they will happen by 2035, or by 2045 at the very latest (if they didn't, by that time, that's because people don't want them, not because they can't have them).
You are exhibiting a common mistake - linear thinking. The difference between 2015 and 2115 will be like the difference between 2015 and 1015, not between 2015 and 1915. Just like the difference between 1915 and 2015 is not like the difference between 1915 and 1815, it's more like the difference between 1915 and 1615.
- SeoxyS 11y agoI don't think the difference between 1995 to 2005 and 2005 to 2015 is a factor of 10x. Looks pretty linear over the last 20 years. The big innovations of this decade is the smartphone and Uber. Last decade had WiFi, ubiquitous internet, the cellphone. I think it's hard to say we moved forward 2005->2015 10x what we did 1995-2005.
- p1esk 11y agoYou're looking too closely at the exponential curve. At such a small scale (individual decades) it appears to be almost linear - very little difference. Only if you step back you will see the acceleration. And no, the big innovations of the last decade are not the smartphone and Uber. Those things are fads, which will be forgotten in 20 years, just like we forgot all about audio tapes, and photo printing shops. In my opinion, the real advances of 2005-2015 are the new gene manipulation techniques, brain signal decoding, and deep learning.