5 ms·

They will also put a lot of people out of work. Net positive in the long term but painful in the short term, and society hasn't shown a willingness to adjust (

by nugget 11y ago

They will also put a lot of people out of work. Net positive in the long term but painful in the short term, and society hasn't shown a willingness to adjust (yet).

threeseed 11y ago
Which isn't necessarily an issue for Japan. They have an ageing population, declining birthrate and an aversion for immigration. They actually need robots do the menial tasks in society since no human is going to be around to do it.
- ekianjo 11y ago
  > They actually need robots do the menial tasks in society since no human is going to be around to do it. If you imagine robots are going to show up and clean the streets in Japan you are in for a massive disappointment. This kind of things will never happen on time for when they need it, and Japan is not known to be the most innovative country they used to be anymore. They lost it about 20 years ago.
  - threeseed 11y ago
    Of all the things that could be automated on roads garbage collection and street cleaning seem ideal. They operate at slow speeds, have far fewer edge cases e.g. cars aggressively cutting in and out and people already move out of their way when they come by. And you don't want to dismiss Japan's (a) technology ability and (b) commitment to robotics. Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba lead the world in many sensor technologies in particular visual that would be relevant to cars, robotics and other automated systems. Most importantly their culture is more conducive to it, case in point the robot run hotel: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/japanese-hotel-run-by-robots/6706822 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/japanese-hotel-run-by-...
    - blazespin 11y ago
      Yeah, I was just picturing this in my head. What a great idea for a robot. Sure enough: https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=street%20cleaning%20robots https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&es...
  - blazespin 11y ago
    Oh? Care to share your crystal ball?
tdylan 11y ago
Self driving vehicles will not show up overnight. The road to 100% penetration will be a long one, with many intermediate steps. I'd say as low as ~20 but as high as 75 year time frame.
- blazespin 11y ago
  100% will probably never happen. 99% maybe.
  - tdylan 11y ago
    Perhaps for recreational use, yes. But I would assume that humans will be a hinderance on the road system and would far increase the possible accidents. Self driving vehicles will be able to 'cluster' and travel, literally, as fast as they can. I don't see any human keeping up with that.
ekianjo 11y ago
> people out of work Yeah, like automobiles put farriers out of work, but it did not happen overnight, and people adjust and find new jobs. Like car mechanics. If more cars are constantly on the road, there will be a need for a lot of maintenance, etc... I'm not worried one bit even in the short term.
- hugh4 11y ago
  I'm worried in the long term. The way I see it, automation destroys jobs for stupider people and creates jobs for smarter people. Ten jobs making widgets are replaced by one job as a widget robot repairman (and 0.001 of a job of a widget robot designer) and bam, we're making ten times more widgets. But the job of robot repairman is a more intellectually difficult job than the factory workers had in the first place. Hundreds of years ago, 95% of jobs could be done with a two-digit IQ, because they were things like ploughing fields and herding goats. But we've been automating all the easy jobs and creating new, more fulfilling jobs, and getting richer in the process. At some point though, which I think is right about now, we cross the point where less than 50% of the jobs can be done with a two-digit IQ. We no longer need manual labourers, we need people who can design and maintain robots. And the fact is that 50% of the population is of below-median intelligence and will have trouble doing these new jobs. What do we do with all these people who are incapable of performing any worthwhile role? In the longer run perhaps we can genetically engineer people so that everyone can be a robot engineer. But in the meantime? So yeah, I think it is a genuine problem we're going to have to face eventually.
  - puredemo 11y ago
    What bothers me more is that the intelligent are too busy working to have kids, while the lowest classes now want basic income and will have all the time in the world to start large families. It's absolutely dysgenic.
    - Frqy3 11y ago
      Sounds like you might have the premise for a movie there.
eCa 11y ago
Yes, we should strive for a world where no-one has to work.

by nugget 11y ago

They will also put a lot of people out of work. Net positive in the long term but painful in the short term, and society hasn't shown a willingness to adjust (yet).

threeseed 11y ago

Which isn't necessarily an issue for Japan. They have an ageing population, declining birthrate and an aversion for immigration. They actually need robots do the menial tasks in society since no human is going to be around to do it.

ekianjo 11y ago
> They actually need robots do the menial tasks in society since no human is going to be around to do it. If you imagine robots are going to show up and clean the streets in Japan you are in for a massive disappointment. This kind of things will never happen on time for when they need it, and Japan is not known to be the most innovative country they used to be anymore. They lost it about 20 years ago.
- threeseed 11y ago
  Of all the things that could be automated on roads garbage collection and street cleaning seem ideal. They operate at slow speeds, have far fewer edge cases e.g. cars aggressively cutting in and out and people already move out of their way when they come by. And you don't want to dismiss Japan's (a) technology ability and (b) commitment to robotics. Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba lead the world in many sensor technologies in particular visual that would be relevant to cars, robotics and other automated systems. Most importantly their culture is more conducive to it, case in point the robot run hotel: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/japanese-hotel-run-by-robots/6706822 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/japanese-hotel-run-by-...
  - blazespin 11y ago
    Yeah, I was just picturing this in my head. What a great idea for a robot. Sure enough: https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=street%20cleaning%20robots https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&es...
- blazespin 11y ago
  Oh? Care to share your crystal ball?

tdylan 11y ago

Self driving vehicles will not show up overnight. The road to 100% penetration will be a long one, with many intermediate steps. I'd say as low as ~20 but as high as 75 year time frame.

blazespin 11y ago
100% will probably never happen. 99% maybe.
- tdylan 11y ago
  Perhaps for recreational use, yes. But I would assume that humans will be a hinderance on the road system and would far increase the possible accidents. Self driving vehicles will be able to 'cluster' and travel, literally, as fast as they can. I don't see any human keeping up with that.

ekianjo 11y ago

> people out of work Yeah, like automobiles put farriers out of work, but it did not happen overnight, and people adjust and find new jobs. Like car mechanics. If more cars are constantly on the road, there will be a need for a lot of maintenance, etc... I'm not worried one bit even in the short term.

hugh4 11y ago
I'm worried in the long term. The way I see it, automation destroys jobs for stupider people and creates jobs for smarter people. Ten jobs making widgets are replaced by one job as a widget robot repairman (and 0.001 of a job of a widget robot designer) and bam, we're making ten times more widgets. But the job of robot repairman is a more intellectually difficult job than the factory workers had in the first place. Hundreds of years ago, 95% of jobs could be done with a two-digit IQ, because they were things like ploughing fields and herding goats. But we've been automating all the easy jobs and creating new, more fulfilling jobs, and getting richer in the process. At some point though, which I think is right about now, we cross the point where less than 50% of the jobs can be done with a two-digit IQ. We no longer need manual labourers, we need people who can design and maintain robots. And the fact is that 50% of the population is of below-median intelligence and will have trouble doing these new jobs. What do we do with all these people who are incapable of performing any worthwhile role? In the longer run perhaps we can genetically engineer people so that everyone can be a robot engineer. But in the meantime? So yeah, I think it is a genuine problem we're going to have to face eventually.
- puredemo 11y ago
  What bothers me more is that the intelligent are too busy working to have kids, while the lowest classes now want basic income and will have all the time in the world to start large families. It's absolutely dysgenic.
  - Frqy3 11y ago
    Sounds like you might have the premise for a movie there.

eCa 11y ago

Yes, we should strive for a world where no-one has to work.