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That is exactly the control mechanism that was used by a number of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, to prevent the Arab Spring revolutions from happening

by vvvv 11y ago

That is exactly the control mechanism that was used by a number of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, to prevent the Arab Spring revolutions from happening within their borders. They handed out billions of cash to the populace. "...the Saudi state began spending $130 billion to pump up civil servant salaries (paying two extra months’ salaries)" "In Kuwait, at around the same time, the state increased civil servant salaries by 115 percent at a cost of more than $1 billion, and at an additional cost of $5 billion, gave a cash handout of Kuwaiti Dinar (KD) 1000 to its citizens and promised free distribution of foodstuffs for fourteen months" http://www18.georgetown.edu/data/people/mk556/publication-61403.pdf http://www18.georgetown.edu/data/people/mk556/publication-61...

themartorana 11y ago
What will become of the already unstable Middle East when oil begins its inevitable (likely slow) decline as a dominant power source?
- tehwebguy 11y ago
  My guess? Not much. Seems like they would find some other investments to make in the meantime.
- douche 11y ago
  Look at the state of the Middle East between the rise of sea-borne trade that withered the old overland Silk Road trade routes and the current petro-states.
- AngrySkillzz 11y ago
  Most of the oil-rich nations have reasonably large sovereign wealth funds, so they have broad investment exposure to the rest of the global economy. I think the plan is to draw on those as necessary to transition their economies into something more diversified and sustainable.
  - codyb 11y ago
    And it looks (at least in Saudi Arabia's case) that they were trying to diversify towards renewables in a vast way [0], although my google search also turned up more recent articles indicating they're pushing that back [1]. The thing about the Saudi Arabian royal family is that they're all guaranteed allowances and the family grows at a near exponential rate since they all have multiple wives. I couldn't find any good sources on numbers but in a book about Saudi Arabia by former CIA operative Robert Baer "Sleeping with the Devil: How the US Sold it's Soul for Saudi Crude" [3] [4] I believe he estimated the current number to be about 60,000 (Wikipedia estimates 15,000 so I may be remembering that wrong [5]), aka an unsustainable population growth in royal family members. [0] - http://www.arabnews.com/news/458342 http://www.arabnews.com/news/458342 [1] - http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/2015/01/saudi-arabia-delays-109-billion-solar-program-eight-years.html http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/2015/01/saudi-arabi... [3] - http://www.amazon.com/Sleeping-Devil-Washington-Saudi-Crude/dp/1400052688 http://www.amazon.com/Sleeping-Devil-Washington-Saudi-Crude/... [4] - (heartily recommended, although because most of these things are classified, truly it is his word. In his other book about Iran, his conclusion was to bring Iran to the playing table and recognize them as a regional and world power, so it doesn't seem to follow a strictly American narrative, and in my opinion, gives him a bit of credence. Others may beg to differ, I'm not sure.) [5] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud
    - slg 11y ago
      Renewables are great, but I'm not sure they would be able to support an entire economy. One of the few great things about fossil fuels and specifically oil is that it is a power source that can be stored in a dense and stable form. Renewables can't really be stored in this manner and therefore can't easily be exported beyond reasonably short distances. Saudi Arabia therefore can't rely on selling renewable energy to the USA, China, and the EU to support their economy like they do with oil.
      - dragonwriter 11y ago
        Oil can be synthesized; to the extent it has desirable traits as an energy transport medium, that doesn't mean it has to be the root energy source.
- jkaunisv1 11y ago
  They may actually emerge as a leader in green energy & architecture. Masdar City looks like an interesting project to follow.
- moron4hire 11y ago
  If anything, they'll get richer, as oil is not exactly an elastic good. As supply dries up, demand won't, so price will have to compensate, and barring some form of extra-market intervention, it will probably mean a higher margin for the suppliers.
- Animats 11y ago
  Probably what already happened to Egypt and Syria when their oil production dropped.

by vvvv 11y ago

themartorana 11y ago

What will become of the already unstable Middle East when oil begins its inevitable (likely slow) decline as a dominant power source?

tehwebguy 11y ago
My guess? Not much. Seems like they would find some other investments to make in the meantime.
douche 11y ago
Look at the state of the Middle East between the rise of sea-borne trade that withered the old overland Silk Road trade routes and the current petro-states.
AngrySkillzz 11y ago
Most of the oil-rich nations have reasonably large sovereign wealth funds, so they have broad investment exposure to the rest of the global economy. I think the plan is to draw on those as necessary to transition their economies into something more diversified and sustainable.
- codyb 11y ago
  And it looks (at least in Saudi Arabia's case) that they were trying to diversify towards renewables in a vast way [0], although my google search also turned up more recent articles indicating they're pushing that back [1]. The thing about the Saudi Arabian royal family is that they're all guaranteed allowances and the family grows at a near exponential rate since they all have multiple wives. I couldn't find any good sources on numbers but in a book about Saudi Arabia by former CIA operative Robert Baer "Sleeping with the Devil: How the US Sold it's Soul for Saudi Crude" [3] [4] I believe he estimated the current number to be about 60,000 (Wikipedia estimates 15,000 so I may be remembering that wrong [5]), aka an unsustainable population growth in royal family members. [0] - http://www.arabnews.com/news/458342 http://www.arabnews.com/news/458342 [1] - http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/2015/01/saudi-arabia-delays-109-billion-solar-program-eight-years.html http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/2015/01/saudi-arabi... [3] - http://www.amazon.com/Sleeping-Devil-Washington-Saudi-Crude/dp/1400052688 http://www.amazon.com/Sleeping-Devil-Washington-Saudi-Crude/... [4] - (heartily recommended, although because most of these things are classified, truly it is his word. In his other book about Iran, his conclusion was to bring Iran to the playing table and recognize them as a regional and world power, so it doesn't seem to follow a strictly American narrative, and in my opinion, gives him a bit of credence. Others may beg to differ, I'm not sure.) [5] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud
  - slg 11y ago
    Renewables are great, but I'm not sure they would be able to support an entire economy. One of the few great things about fossil fuels and specifically oil is that it is a power source that can be stored in a dense and stable form. Renewables can't really be stored in this manner and therefore can't easily be exported beyond reasonably short distances. Saudi Arabia therefore can't rely on selling renewable energy to the USA, China, and the EU to support their economy like they do with oil.
    - dragonwriter 11y ago
      Oil can be synthesized; to the extent it has desirable traits as an energy transport medium, that doesn't mean it has to be the root energy source.
jkaunisv1 11y ago
They may actually emerge as a leader in green energy & architecture. Masdar City looks like an interesting project to follow.
moron4hire 11y ago
If anything, they'll get richer, as oil is not exactly an elastic good. As supply dries up, demand won't, so price will have to compensate, and barring some form of extra-market intervention, it will probably mean a higher margin for the suppliers.
Animats 11y ago
Probably what already happened to Egypt and Syria when their oil production dropped.