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> Postulate a runaway Kessler syndrome kicks off around 2030, at a point when there are thousands of small comsats (and a couple of big space stations), ranging
by paulsutter 11y ago
> Postulate a runaway Kessler syndrome kicks off around 2030, at a point when there are thousands of small comsats (and a couple of big space stations), ranging from very low orbits to a couple of thousand kilometers up. Human access to space is completely restricted; any launch at all becomes a game of Russian roulette.
Postulate? This article hasn't got a shred of calculation to give any hint when this becomes a problem. Is this a 2030 problem or a 2300 problem? No data.
- freehunter 11y agoIt's a problem right now because we just don't know. It could happen tomorrow. It could happen in 2300. It's all chance. Like the example given of running across a field while machine guns blaze away. You might cross 100 times and be safe. I try to cross once and I'm gone. All we know is, our odds increase with each item we put in orbit.
- JoeAltmaier 11y agoIts measurable and predictable. A model has to be built is all. Nothing magical or unknowable about it. I agree with the idea that we should, fairly easily, be able to answer questions like "when will this become critical" Further, its not a single happening - its a process modeled by a differential equation including terms for orbital decay, particle distribution over time, solar wind, new launches etc.
- maxerickson 11y agoThe author is trying to start a conversation about the societal implications, not trying to analyze the Kessler syndrome itself.