3 ms·

http://www.pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/03/08/erooms_law.php http://www.pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/03/08/erooms_l... http://www.vox.com/2015/3/23

http://www.pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/03/08/erooms_law.php http://www.pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/03/08/erooms_l... http://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8264355/research-study-hype http://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8264355/research-study-hype http://www.nature.com/news/registered-clinical-trials-make-positive-findings-vanish-1.18181 http://www.nature.com/news/registered-clinical-trials-make-p... There is no exponential progress in medicine. In fact, medicine is in some ways actually regressing, in particular through growing antibiotic resistance. Where is this evidence for leaps in medical technological progress? The regular news stories prematurely heralding the end of some disease based solely on some priliminary in-vitro result that likely won't ever make it to a Phase 1 clinical trial? I am betting that medicine will look twenty years from now largely as it does today. It will be painful, expensive, unautomated, unscientific, and of course, largely ineffective--just as it did twenty years before today. Had I made this prediction in 1970, 1980, 1990, or (extrapolating 5 years into the future) 2000, I would have been absolutely correct, so I see no reason to stop making it. Take care of yourself. Do not assume regenerative medicine will fix the damage done to your body through smoking, excessive drinking, poor diet, or lack of exercise. Even if some genuine breakthrough arrived tomorrow, it would still take years to receive FDA approval and would likely cost a small fortune (see Sovaldi).

nl 11y ago
There is no exponential progress in medicine. In fact, medicine is in some ways actually regressing, in particular through growing antibiotic resistance. Whilst medical progress isn't exponential this comment is way too pessimistic. Take the falling rates of mortality due to cancer[1][2]. Falling infant mortality means more people are living long enough to get cancer. But slowly we are winning that battle too as the mortality rate shows. I am betting that medicine will look twenty years from now largely as it does today. It will be painful, expensive, unautomated, unscientific, and of course, largely ineffective--just as it did twenty years before today. Had I made this prediction in 1970, 1980, 1990, or (extrapolating 5 years into the future) 2000, I would have been absolutely correct, so I see no reason to stop making it. It's usually a good bet to think that things will look the same in the future as they do now. However, your 2000-to-2020 bet is utterly and completely wrong because of the huge progress against Malaria if nothing else. Since 2000, anti-malaria efforts have saved over 3 million lives and cut the mortality rate by nearly 50%[3]. That's a huge, planet changing piece of progress. In the developed world, the HPV Cancer Vaccine is having a similar effect on cervical cancer (one of the most common cancer types for women). Even if some genuine breakthrough arrived tomorrow, it would still take years to receive FDA approval and would likely cost a small fortune (see Sovaldi). In most of the world public health systems pay for most truly effective medications. [1] https://katatrepsis.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/mortality-over-time.jpg https://katatrepsis.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/mortality-ov... [2] http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CPzNroCH8h4/TwIN75xB1VI/AAAAAAAAALE/1P_ZmlONb8c/s1600/Cancer+in+the+USA.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CPzNroCH8h4/TwIN75xB1VI/AAAAAAAAAL... [3] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2013/world-malaria-report-20131211/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2013/world-mala...

nl 11y ago

There is no exponential progress in medicine. In fact, medicine is in some ways actually regressing, in particular through growing antibiotic resistance. Whilst medical progress isn't exponential this comment is way too pessimistic. Take the falling rates of mortality due to cancer[1][2]. Falling infant mortality means more people are living long enough to get cancer. But slowly we are winning that battle too as the mortality rate shows. I am betting that medicine will look twenty years from now largely as it does today. It will be painful, expensive, unautomated, unscientific, and of course, largely ineffective--just as it did twenty years before today. Had I made this prediction in 1970, 1980, 1990, or (extrapolating 5 years into the future) 2000, I would have been absolutely correct, so I see no reason to stop making it. It's usually a good bet to think that things will look the same in the future as they do now. However, your 2000-to-2020 bet is utterly and completely wrong because of the huge progress against Malaria if nothing else. Since 2000, anti-malaria efforts have saved over 3 million lives and cut the mortality rate by nearly 50%[3]. That's a huge, planet changing piece of progress. In the developed world, the HPV Cancer Vaccine is having a similar effect on cervical cancer (one of the most common cancer types for women). Even if some genuine breakthrough arrived tomorrow, it would still take years to receive FDA approval and would likely cost a small fortune (see Sovaldi). In most of the world public health systems pay for most truly effective medications. [1] https://katatrepsis.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/mortality-over-time.jpg https://katatrepsis.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/mortality-ov... [2] http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CPzNroCH8h4/TwIN75xB1VI/AAAAAAAAALE/1P_ZmlONb8c/s1600/Cancer+in+the+USA.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CPzNroCH8h4/TwIN75xB1VI/AAAAAAAAAL... [3] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2013/world-malaria-report-20131211/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2013/world-mala...