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The recent oil price changes made me wonder if the future of cars will be EV or continue to be ICE. It's not because of the current low price of oil. It's wha

The recent oil price changes made me wonder if the future of cars will be EV or continue to be ICE. It's not because of the current low price of oil. It's what caused it, which is fracking. Fracking has been known for a long time. But it suddenly became viable when oil was at $100+. And it was so successful it crashed the global price of oil. When oil reaches $100 again, what other new technologies will be viable? What about $200, $300? This could easily happen due to decreasing oil reserves and increasing demand for a carbon tax due to climate change. Many assume that the path from here is EV. But at $200, $300, the technologies to make oil may become viable. There are technologies right now (I think Audi demonstrated something last year) to take CO2 from the air and combine with hydrogen to make oil. This kind of technology also goes very well with renewable power like wind and solar. The big issue with wind and solar is storing excess electric generation. Most think batteries are the solution. But what about just making oil instead? All of this works directly with the huge current infrastructure and investment in oil and cars. It even provides a much easier solution to reducing climate change than EV. Just create a government regulation that requires all gas to be at least 10% from carbon neutral source. They already did it with ethanol (E10). And if more CO2 reduction is required, they can just keep increasing the percentage mix. When all of these technologies are viable, gas will probably be very expensive. I don't know what the number will be, but let's imagine it's $10 per gallon. That's very expensive, but is it enough for everyone to throw away their cars and buy EV? Is it enough to pay the premium for EV?

jjoonathan 11y ago
> It even provides a much easier solution to reducing climate change than EV. Just create a government regulation that requires all gas to be at least 10% from carbon neutral source. Poe's law.
- cpprototypes 11y ago
  It's laughable to think about this now. But nature doesn't care about liberal/conservative or democrat/republication. The effects of climate change are already happening (California drought). As the effects become more obvious and clear, and the younger generation replaces the old, the political climate can change quickly. EV is simply not a general solution. People keep their cars for a long time and there's no way that infrastructure can change fast enough (for example, all the urban areas with apartments and no personal garages). Nature won't wait for us to upgrade and change our infrastructure to be EV friendly. So what if there's a way to keep the current system but reduce CO2 at the same time? Fracking was once laughed at as not economically viable. Then it suddenly was. Technologies to make oil is now laughed at. Will it still be when oil is at $200 or $300?
  - mikeash 11y ago
    I'm not aware of anyone laughing at technologies to make oil. They're just not economically viable at current prices.
mikeash 11y ago
EVs are just plain better in a lot of ways, even if you ignore CO2 emissions and other pollution and the whole "green" thing entirely. Obviously opinions will vary from person to person, but a lot of people already consider Tesla's Model S to be the best car out there, not as an environmentally-friendly EV, but just as a plain EV. If gasoline magically became 50 cents/gallon tomorrow and was sourced entirely from carbon-neutral and environmentally-friendly places, I certainly would not trade in my Tesla for a gas car just because of that. The problems with EVs at this point are range, cost, and charging infrastructure. Range and infrastructure are negligible problems for Tesla for many people right now, and are being improved constantly. Cost is not negligible for most, but that's being addressed, slowly. This is how new approaches enter. They start off with something that's very expensive but clearly better, then work their way down. For some reason it took Tesla to do this, rather than one of the existing car makers. An aside regarding ethanol: this is widely regarded as a complete boondoggle in the US with no environmental benefit whatsoever, because ethanol takes about as much energy to produce as you get out of it. It's only carbon neutral if you completely ignore all the industry that goes into agriculture.

jjoonathan 11y ago

> It even provides a much easier solution to reducing climate change than EV. Just create a government regulation that requires all gas to be at least 10% from carbon neutral source. Poe's law.

cpprototypes 11y ago
It's laughable to think about this now. But nature doesn't care about liberal/conservative or democrat/republication. The effects of climate change are already happening (California drought). As the effects become more obvious and clear, and the younger generation replaces the old, the political climate can change quickly. EV is simply not a general solution. People keep their cars for a long time and there's no way that infrastructure can change fast enough (for example, all the urban areas with apartments and no personal garages). Nature won't wait for us to upgrade and change our infrastructure to be EV friendly. So what if there's a way to keep the current system but reduce CO2 at the same time? Fracking was once laughed at as not economically viable. Then it suddenly was. Technologies to make oil is now laughed at. Will it still be when oil is at $200 or $300?
- mikeash 11y ago
  I'm not aware of anyone laughing at technologies to make oil. They're just not economically viable at current prices.

mikeash 11y ago

EVs are just plain better in a lot of ways, even if you ignore CO2 emissions and other pollution and the whole "green" thing entirely. Obviously opinions will vary from person to person, but a lot of people already consider Tesla's Model S to be the best car out there, not as an environmentally-friendly EV, but just as a plain EV. If gasoline magically became 50 cents/gallon tomorrow and was sourced entirely from carbon-neutral and environmentally-friendly places, I certainly would not trade in my Tesla for a gas car just because of that. The problems with EVs at this point are range, cost, and charging infrastructure. Range and infrastructure are negligible problems for Tesla for many people right now, and are being improved constantly. Cost is not negligible for most, but that's being addressed, slowly. This is how new approaches enter. They start off with something that's very expensive but clearly better, then work their way down. For some reason it took Tesla to do this, rather than one of the existing car makers. An aside regarding ethanol: this is widely regarded as a complete boondoggle in the US with no environmental benefit whatsoever, because ethanol takes about as much energy to produce as you get out of it. It's only carbon neutral if you completely ignore all the industry that goes into agriculture.