3 ms·

A guy with a bias; is trying to tell me that lessoning supply in a super high demand region is only nominally effecting prices. my head is spinning..

sama 11y ago
Actually what I'm saying is that much more supply is the thing that will drive prices down. (And also that the number of units that are effectively full-time rented on Airbnb is just about 1% of the entire off-rental-market supply--let's get that 99% back!)
- rootedbox 11y ago
  It's just your argument requires me to believe... "In the past year, only about 340 units in SF were rented on Airbnb more than 211 nights, which is what Airbnb has calculated as the break-even point compared to long-term rental." This just didn't sound right; and doing the quick math with the average one bedroom going for 3500.. To reach that 211 day number would mean that rentals on air bnb are going for about 200. But doing a search in SF for air bnb the average rental is 422.. Now some of these are multi room, and some are just a couch.. but I can't seem to find a single 1 bedroom non-share for under 260. This makes that 211 figure feel like its off. Which makes me feel that the 340 units is off. Can we see the calculations used? Also is there a big jump in those units at 210 days.. 200 or 182.. I mean as a land lord if you only have to work half the year and make only a little less revenue; plus the positive of less liabilities I could see my self wanting to air bnb over rent out my unit.
  - rootedbox 11y ago
    Also when you throw rent control into the math.. the calculation used is non-linear and way below 211; very very quickly; because of flat monthly revenue of rent control vs. monthly increase in revenue from an upward market. I would suggest you revisit the math.. or ask to see the data of who did the math for you.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- geebee 11y ago
  How much of San Francisco's rental stock is on the market at any one time? 1% could represent a very high percentage of it. I'd also be interested in knowing what the conversion rate is - in other words, if a rental unit becomes vacant, how often does it become an airbnb rental unit? Here's an more detailed overview of this problem: "While there are many larger underlying contributors to the housing shortage in San Francisco, it is possible that Airbnb adds stress on the margins." http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/11/airbnb-and-the-problem-of-data/ http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/11/airbnb-and-the-problem-of-d...

sama 11y ago

Actually what I'm saying is that much more supply is the thing that will drive prices down. (And also that the number of units that are effectively full-time rented on Airbnb is just about 1% of the entire off-rental-market supply--let's get that 99% back!)

rootedbox 11y ago
It's just your argument requires me to believe... "In the past year, only about 340 units in SF were rented on Airbnb more than 211 nights, which is what Airbnb has calculated as the break-even point compared to long-term rental." This just didn't sound right; and doing the quick math with the average one bedroom going for 3500.. To reach that 211 day number would mean that rentals on air bnb are going for about 200. But doing a search in SF for air bnb the average rental is 422.. Now some of these are multi room, and some are just a couch.. but I can't seem to find a single 1 bedroom non-share for under 260. This makes that 211 figure feel like its off. Which makes me feel that the 340 units is off. Can we see the calculations used? Also is there a big jump in those units at 210 days.. 200 or 182.. I mean as a land lord if you only have to work half the year and make only a little less revenue; plus the positive of less liabilities I could see my self wanting to air bnb over rent out my unit.
- rootedbox 11y ago
  Also when you throw rent control into the math.. the calculation used is non-linear and way below 211; very very quickly; because of flat monthly revenue of rent control vs. monthly increase in revenue from an upward market. I would suggest you revisit the math.. or ask to see the data of who did the math for you.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
geebee 11y ago
How much of San Francisco's rental stock is on the market at any one time? 1% could represent a very high percentage of it. I'd also be interested in knowing what the conversion rate is - in other words, if a rental unit becomes vacant, how often does it become an airbnb rental unit? Here's an more detailed overview of this problem: "While there are many larger underlying contributors to the housing shortage in San Francisco, it is possible that Airbnb adds stress on the margins." http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/11/airbnb-and-the-problem-of-data/ http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/11/airbnb-and-the-problem-of-d...