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> Cyclical implies temporal predictability Sure, I can say with 99.9% certainty that the economy will contract within the next 100 years. Shorten the time fram
by roymurdock 11y ago
> Cyclical implies temporal predictability
Sure, I can say with 99.9% certainty that the economy will contract within the next 100 years. Shorten the time frame and my confidence level will drop accordingly. I'd probably have a 0.1% probability of guessing within 30 days of when the business cycle will reverse.
- WalterBright 11y agoYou're describing a characteristic of a chaotic system. People who have tried to make money using cyclical predictions of the stock market have terrible returns. The only things stock market cycle theories predict is the past.
- JackFr 11y agoI think your mental model is not quite there. The stock market is a leading indicator of the business cycle.