All your points are well-made and I believe you are mostly correct. However, I wouldn't be so quick to entirely dismiss dogfighting as something that "just isn'

All your points are well-made and I believe you are mostly correct. However, I wouldn't be so quick to entirely dismiss dogfighting as something that "just isn't going to happen anymore". Nobody knows exactly what combat would look like with modern weapons between actual adversaries; which weapons would would be ineffective; which countermeasures would succeed. The possibility that two aircraft could get close enough that it would become a dogfight should always be accounted for. Munitions could be expended to the point where no long-range missiles remain. An enemy aircraft could use terrain masking in mountainous terrain to get close; no radar can detect an aircraft through half a kilometer of rock. How about the effects of inclement weather? Or, perhaps, some F-35s are themselves using terrain masking on a ground-attack mission due to enemy SAM presence and are surprised by an enemy squadron. The point is, there is always a way things can go wrong. Ignoring that gets people killed. That said, it has been accounted for in the F-35; the Distributed Aperture System along with off-boresight missiles could actually make the turning battle of a dogfight obsolete... until the F-35 expended all its missiles. Of course a UAV could be much better than any manned aircraft in a dogfight; but battles aren't always picked, one must always be prepared for a battle to be forced under less than optimal circumstances.