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Are you presuming Tetlock et al didn't think of this? That seems pretty unlikely, given what they're studying.
by XFrequentist 11y ago
Are you presuming Tetlock et al didn't think of this? That seems pretty unlikely, given what they're studying.
- aynsof 11y agoSo you're suggesting instead that 'superforecasters' exist, but that they haven't been discovered by finance? It'd be a pretty lucrative market for people able to predict the future. I think it's far more likely that it's less than excellent science.
- XFrequentist 11y agoI'm struck that with a tiny bit of research you could figure out yourself if/how they accounted for the possibility of luck (hint: they did).