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>If the Russians attack the Germans The EU crumbles. France and England have some very Polandesque choices to make. Scandinavia goes to war which, historically

>If the Russians attack the Germans The EU crumbles. France and England have some very Polandesque choices to make. Scandinavia goes to war which, historically, can be rather frightening. The economic side would be devastating for the US economy. Many US citizens would get some pretty horrible content in their correspondence with family and friends. >If the Chinese attack the Japanese The tech industry is fucked, as two of the largest producers of parts and products shift their industrial capacity to a war footing, and the other big player is caught in between. If China went ham on Nippon, then Vietnam is next, and they would know it. Ditto for the Philippines. As the Island nations lock down, global shipping becomes a memory. Huge portions of the population in the US would watch as their families and ancestral homelands plunge into the dark and decay of a drawn out war. Frankly, i feel like your post was Bait. Surely no one on this site is that ignorant of global trade, or what would happen if 3 of the five largest economies shifted from peace to war. The refugee wave, from either ocean, would be enough to wreck our little utopia. I sincerely hope that, should push come to tactical shove, your group (the people that feel as you do) would be drastically outnumbered by the people who give a fuck about oaths, alliances, and friends. but i wonder... EDIT: reply limit reached. You seem to have a very limited understanding of the interconnected nature of global economy, ruling regimes, and scattered family groups. On top of this, it would appear that you are taking a theoretical approach to potential events that have a historical precedent. The US is a service industry based economy. for better or for worse we are completely dependent upon global commerce. This notion that we can do everything we need to do is not impossible, or even improbable, it is just unfeasible. The same people that want America to be nice to everyone (whilst simultaneously cutting off our involvement globally... :|) are the same people that will shit their pants when their college degree does not get them out of working in fields and factories that are running night and day.

tsotha 11y ago
>The EU crumbles. France and England have some very Polandesque choices to make. Scandinavia goes to war which, historically, can be rather frightening. The economic side would be devastating for the US economy. Many US citizens would get some pretty horrible content in their correspondence with family and friends. None of that constitutes a reason for the US to get involved militarily. The idea we should put ourselves in the position of going to war with China because "the tech industry is fucked" is daft, in my opinion. The Japanese are quite capable of taking care of themselves, and they're quite capable of entering into regional security agreements. >I sincerely hope that, should push come to tactical shove, your group (the people that feel as you do) would be drastically outnumbered by the people who give a fuck about oaths, alliances, and friends. I sincerely hope we outnumber the people who think the US should be the guarantor of everyone else's peace and freedom. We should not be getting into other peoples' wars without a clear national interest of corresponding importance. In terms of "oaths, alliances, and friends", well, countries do not take oaths and do not have friends. We do have alliances, but there's no dishonor in dissolving alliances as long as the other party has sufficient time to adjust. EDIT: >You seem to have a very limited understanding of the interconnected nature of global economy, ruling regimes, and scattered family groups. You seem to have a bad habit in which you assume people who don't agree with you are either ignorant or stupid. I understand these things perfectly well. Probably better than you. I just don't think they're worth going to war over.
- iofj 11y ago
  But you must realize that during such a war, the maximum economy possible in the US would be whatever can work without international trade, which would be comparable to 1900 or so. S&P down 99+% would be a start. I don't think it matters much what job you have, if it's not farming you lose it. The dollar loses its value for paying for anything not locally produced. We lose any tmechnology that depends on overseas resources, meaning all of them. Meaning with the dollar seriously down, laptops, phones, ipads, tvs, cars, all would massively increase in price on top of that. And then there's oil ... This wouldn't be a guarantee, but if history is a guide ...
  - tsotha 11y ago
    >But you must realize that during such a war, the maximum economy possible in the US would be whatever can work without international trade, which would be comparable to 1900 or so. So every country except the US is involved in this hypothetical war? Really? If China attacks Japan, even assuming that drags in Vietnam, the Philippines, Korea, and Indonesia that still leaves a whole lot of countries for us to trade with. The idea the S&P would drop by 99% is just daft. Beyond that it's not like we can't get involved in a war once it starts if we decide it's in our interest to do so. War isn't like a comedy club where they shut the door once the act starts.
    - iofj 11y ago
      > So every country except the US is involved in this hypothetical war? Really? Happened twice in the last century. Even South America was the least affected, but it wasn't unaffected, and it's not like they'd generate a huge amount of trade (compared to EU/Asia who would definitely be involved). > If China attacks Japan, even assuming that drags in Vietnam, the Philippines, Korea, and Indonesia that still leaves a whole lot of countries for us to trade with. The idea the S&P would drop by 99% is just daft. Out of the 10 worst stock market crashes, 8 happened during WW2, 7 during the period where the US wasn't actively involved in the war. Depending on the date range you pick you could say it dropped 50% in absolute value, or you could say it stayed about constant. This was during a period with >10% average inflation ratio, so that's pretty fucking bad. "Real value" of the S&P500 (meaning "how many big macs you could buy" for index shares 1935 to 1950) dropped ~74%. And that's still ignoring the fact that many products simply became unavailable, because there was no way to safely acquire them from US soil, at which point price becomes a moot point. This agrees with anecdotal evidence I heard from my grandfather : the beginning of WW2 (I think he means 1938-1939 onwards, when you could still delude yourself there was peace), there was no violence, there was simply a hell of a lot of people going unemployed very fast, shortages of all sorts of stuff, and a lot of rich people suddenly looking for jobs. > Beyond that it's not like we can't get involved in a war once it starts if we decide it's in our interest to do so. War isn't like a comedy club where they shut the door once the act starts. True, but at that point the consequences are a "fait accompli", history, and unchangeable. You don't ever want to get to that point if you can avoid it at all.

tsotha 11y ago

>The EU crumbles. France and England have some very Polandesque choices to make. Scandinavia goes to war which, historically, can be rather frightening. The economic side would be devastating for the US economy. Many US citizens would get some pretty horrible content in their correspondence with family and friends. None of that constitutes a reason for the US to get involved militarily. The idea we should put ourselves in the position of going to war with China because "the tech industry is fucked" is daft, in my opinion. The Japanese are quite capable of taking care of themselves, and they're quite capable of entering into regional security agreements. >I sincerely hope that, should push come to tactical shove, your group (the people that feel as you do) would be drastically outnumbered by the people who give a fuck about oaths, alliances, and friends. I sincerely hope we outnumber the people who think the US should be the guarantor of everyone else's peace and freedom. We should not be getting into other peoples' wars without a clear national interest of corresponding importance. In terms of "oaths, alliances, and friends", well, countries do not take oaths and do not have friends. We do have alliances, but there's no dishonor in dissolving alliances as long as the other party has sufficient time to adjust. EDIT: >You seem to have a very limited understanding of the interconnected nature of global economy, ruling regimes, and scattered family groups. You seem to have a bad habit in which you assume people who don't agree with you are either ignorant or stupid. I understand these things perfectly well. Probably better than you. I just don't think they're worth going to war over.

iofj 11y ago
But you must realize that during such a war, the maximum economy possible in the US would be whatever can work without international trade, which would be comparable to 1900 or so. S&P down 99+% would be a start. I don't think it matters much what job you have, if it's not farming you lose it. The dollar loses its value for paying for anything not locally produced. We lose any tmechnology that depends on overseas resources, meaning all of them. Meaning with the dollar seriously down, laptops, phones, ipads, tvs, cars, all would massively increase in price on top of that. And then there's oil ... This wouldn't be a guarantee, but if history is a guide ...
- tsotha 11y ago
  >But you must realize that during such a war, the maximum economy possible in the US would be whatever can work without international trade, which would be comparable to 1900 or so. So every country except the US is involved in this hypothetical war? Really? If China attacks Japan, even assuming that drags in Vietnam, the Philippines, Korea, and Indonesia that still leaves a whole lot of countries for us to trade with. The idea the S&P would drop by 99% is just daft. Beyond that it's not like we can't get involved in a war once it starts if we decide it's in our interest to do so. War isn't like a comedy club where they shut the door once the act starts.
  - iofj 11y ago
    > So every country except the US is involved in this hypothetical war? Really? Happened twice in the last century. Even South America was the least affected, but it wasn't unaffected, and it's not like they'd generate a huge amount of trade (compared to EU/Asia who would definitely be involved). > If China attacks Japan, even assuming that drags in Vietnam, the Philippines, Korea, and Indonesia that still leaves a whole lot of countries for us to trade with. The idea the S&P would drop by 99% is just daft. Out of the 10 worst stock market crashes, 8 happened during WW2, 7 during the period where the US wasn't actively involved in the war. Depending on the date range you pick you could say it dropped 50% in absolute value, or you could say it stayed about constant. This was during a period with >10% average inflation ratio, so that's pretty fucking bad. "Real value" of the S&P500 (meaning "how many big macs you could buy" for index shares 1935 to 1950) dropped ~74%. And that's still ignoring the fact that many products simply became unavailable, because there was no way to safely acquire them from US soil, at which point price becomes a moot point. This agrees with anecdotal evidence I heard from my grandfather : the beginning of WW2 (I think he means 1938-1939 onwards, when you could still delude yourself there was peace), there was no violence, there was simply a hell of a lot of people going unemployed very fast, shortages of all sorts of stuff, and a lot of rich people suddenly looking for jobs. > Beyond that it's not like we can't get involved in a war once it starts if we decide it's in our interest to do so. War isn't like a comedy club where they shut the door once the act starts. True, but at that point the consequences are a "fait accompli", history, and unchangeable. You don't ever want to get to that point if you can avoid it at all.