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I agree that Fooled By Randomness was a good read, but since then Taleb has become too wrapped up in self-aggrandizement, and he now thinks way to highly of him
by rmorrison 17y ago
I agree that Fooled By Randomness was a good read, but since then Taleb has become too wrapped up in self-aggrandizement, and he now thinks way to highly of himself and his abilities.
He lost me when he started writing articles like Ten Principles for a Black Swan-Proof World (http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/tenprinciples.pdf http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/tenprinciples.pdf). Isn't the point about Black Swans that they're impossible to protect against?
- jamesbkel 17y agoAgreed. I thought "Fooled..." and "The Black Swan" were great and I have a lot of respect for Taleb. But lately, he has become too self-aggrandizing. He seems to take too much credit for saying that an unpredictable event could happen, a few years before a relatively unpredictable (or at least, unforeseen) event did happen.
- tokenadult 17y agoIsn't the point about Black Swans that they're impossible to protect against? No, actually. The point about Black Swans is that they are impossible to predict. But one can plan to avoid the severe CONSEQUENCES of unpredictable events. The illustration that Taleb gave in a conference talk video once posted to HN was that a resident of Florida doesn't know when the next hurricane will come, but can build a house that is more resistant to hurricane damage than the typical house. Similarly, some investment strategies can be genuinely hedged against rare events that will happen at unknown times, while other investment strategies expose the investor to debts greater than the original investment.