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"It isn't a debt bubble like the mortgage crisis and hasn't infected the public markets like the 90's. Caveate Emptor and all that." I've heard that a lot, but
by JonFish85 11y ago
"It isn't a debt bubble like the mortgage crisis and hasn't infected the public markets like the 90's. Caveate Emptor and all that."
I've heard that a lot, but I wonder if it's as harmless as people say? If/when this bubble pops, won't that have a pretty tough spiral effect? Granted it might not be as deep as the late-90's bubble, but I'd have to think that this will be pretty grim when it happens too.
Along with sky-high valuations come sky-high salaries, which breed high rent & purchase prices for homes. Along with that comes high tax revenue and such.
If suddenly a young engineer's expected income drops from $150-$200k/year to $60k, that could be pretty rough. Granted it probably will affect the coasts a lot harder than the central US, but I'd think it'd have national effects regardless. Salaries drop, suddenly people can't afford their houses, so they either have to sell at a loss or try to hold on to it. What if a sizable chunk of the population is no longer able to afford college loans?
You also mentioned the pension problem; if tax revenue starts to dry up because housing prices goes down, that could exacerbate a problem that's already popping up around the US.
- shostack 11y agoYou know, I've long wondered this for the Bay Area. The question in my mind is...how much of the housing crisis, rents, and raw population are coming from people employed by startups that are most at risk of this? Google, FB, Apple, Adobe, etc. have strong revenue (perhaps other issues, but there is no argument that there is money to be made and that they are making it). They also employ massive numbers of people. If a so-called funding bubble bursts, is it really going to make a dent in the other areas like you suggest? Or is the bulk of the "tech industry" comprised of the larger tech companies? If it is the larger tech companies, and a bubble bursts, it might provide less flexibility for leaving to start your own thing, and there may be overall less competition, but they still compete against each other for top talent, and need way more resources than a startup does.
- icebraining 11y agoAre developers making $150-$200k/year working for startups really a sizable chunk of the population?