3 ms·

An interesting take. I do not remember it this way, however. Any links, papers, etc, with supporting evidence?

by cema 17y ago

nostrademons 17y ago
I remember it that way. When the OLPC was first announced in 2005, a "cheap" laptop was $799-999, and a decent one was about $1600. Now an average laptop (as long as it's not a Mac) is around $500, with cheap netbooks in the $300 range. Citations: http://blogs.computerworld.com/what_was_the_first_netbook http://blogs.computerworld.com/what_was_the_first_netbook http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook
- fnid 17y ago
  You're absolutely right, that's exactly how I remember it too. People used to call me all the time, "I can't find a laptop under $1,000, help! What should I buy? Should I just get a desktop for $700? I can use the same monitor." Now, my next portable is going to cost $100. It might be a tablet. Not too long from now, they're going to be in refrigerator magnets for $5.
- NathanKP 17y ago
  If you are trying to say that the OLPC was what drove down laptop prices I would have to disagree. The OLPC was made possible by the same forces that drove down other laptop prices: cheaper electronics parts. OLPC may have had a slight effect, but the larger cause was the natural development of computing technology. As electronics advance prices drop at a fairly predictable rate. What cost $100 this year is probably going to cost $50 next year, and $25 the year after that. That is the real reason why laptops have gotten so cheap, not because of anything the OLPC foundation has done.
  - nostrademons 17y ago
    So, there's both a proximate and an ultimate cause. The ultimate cause of cheaper laptops is cheaper laptop parts. They wouldn't even be possible if the parts couldn't be had for less than the sale price. But until somebody in the industry breaks from the pack and says "I'm going to offer this cheaply, damn the profits", all that cost savings accrues in profits to the OEMs. That maverick could be an upstart startup intent on market share with nothing to lose. Or it could be a nonprofit director on a mission to save the 3rd world. In this case, the OLPC was the catalyst. The technology existed beforehand, and most people knew the technology existed. But Nicholas Negroponte was the first one to say "It can be done, therefore let's do it." The same structure exists in lots of other industries. Why is broadband 10x faster in Japan than here (citation: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Images/commentarynews/broadbandspeedchart.jpg http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Images/commentarynews/bro...)? They have the same technology. But the telecom industry in the U.S. is a duopoly between Comcast and Verizon (with a few bit players), and they have an incentive to dribble out only enough in speed increases to stay ahead of their competitor. Perfectly competitive markets exist only in an economics textbook. In the real world, things don't happen until somebody says "We're going to make it happen."
    - sethg 17y ago
      But until somebody in the industry breaks from the pack and says "I'm going to offer this cheaply, damn the profits", all that cost savings accrues in profits to the OEMs. ...or the manufacturers concentrate on bringing the features of $1500 laptops into the next generation of $1000 laptops, instead of bringing the features of $1000 laptops into a new generation of $750 laptops.
  - gvb 17y ago
    Cheaper electronics helped, but my rose colored memories are that... * Manufacturers were using the lower cost electronics to add more features at the same price point rather than lowering their price point. The OLPC definitely shook that up. * The OLPC led the way using linux for the underlying OS, which led to the first netbooks using linux. This really shook up Microsoft, resulting in them offering deeply discounted copies of WinXP to netbook manufacturers to recapture that market ($15? vs. $50++? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook#Windows http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook#Windows, http://www.electronista.com/articles/09/04/19/ms.asks.15.for.xp.netbooks/ http://www.electronista.com/articles/09/04/19/ms.asks.15.for...). With respect to the last bullet, the OLPC drove down software prices as much as Moore's Law drove down hardware prices.
jcl 17y ago
The best link between OLPC and netbooks that I've found is Asus's CEO admitting that he was inspired by OLPC when they created the Eee PC: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=728044 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=728044
- cema 17y ago
  Thank you! This is exactly what I was looking for. Inspiration counts for something.

An interesting take. I do not remember it this way, however. Any links, papers, etc, with supporting evidence?

by cema 17y ago

An interesting take. I do not remember it this way, however. Any links, papers, etc, with supporting evidence?

I remember it that way. When the OLPC was first announced in 2005, a "cheap" laptop was $799-999, and a decent one was about $1600. Now an average laptop (as long as it's not a Mac) is around $500, with cheap netbooks in the $300 range. Citations: http://blogs.computerworld.com/what_was_the_first_netbook http://blogs.computerworld.com/what_was_the_first_netbook http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook

fnid 17y ago
You're absolutely right, that's exactly how I remember it too. People used to call me all the time, "I can't find a laptop under $1,000, help! What should I buy? Should I just get a desktop for $700? I can use the same monitor." Now, my next portable is going to cost $100. It might be a tablet. Not too long from now, they're going to be in refrigerator magnets for $5.
NathanKP 17y ago
If you are trying to say that the OLPC was what drove down laptop prices I would have to disagree. The OLPC was made possible by the same forces that drove down other laptop prices: cheaper electronics parts. OLPC may have had a slight effect, but the larger cause was the natural development of computing technology. As electronics advance prices drop at a fairly predictable rate. What cost $100 this year is probably going to cost $50 next year, and $25 the year after that. That is the real reason why laptops have gotten so cheap, not because of anything the OLPC foundation has done.
- nostrademons 17y ago
  So, there's both a proximate and an ultimate cause. The ultimate cause of cheaper laptops is cheaper laptop parts. They wouldn't even be possible if the parts couldn't be had for less than the sale price. But until somebody in the industry breaks from the pack and says "I'm going to offer this cheaply, damn the profits", all that cost savings accrues in profits to the OEMs. That maverick could be an upstart startup intent on market share with nothing to lose. Or it could be a nonprofit director on a mission to save the 3rd world. In this case, the OLPC was the catalyst. The technology existed beforehand, and most people knew the technology existed. But Nicholas Negroponte was the first one to say "It can be done, therefore let's do it." The same structure exists in lots of other industries. Why is broadband 10x faster in Japan than here (citation: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Images/commentarynews/broadbandspeedchart.jpg http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Images/commentarynews/bro...)? They have the same technology. But the telecom industry in the U.S. is a duopoly between Comcast and Verizon (with a few bit players), and they have an incentive to dribble out only enough in speed increases to stay ahead of their competitor. Perfectly competitive markets exist only in an economics textbook. In the real world, things don't happen until somebody says "We're going to make it happen."
  - sethg 17y ago
    But until somebody in the industry breaks from the pack and says "I'm going to offer this cheaply, damn the profits", all that cost savings accrues in profits to the OEMs. ...or the manufacturers concentrate on bringing the features of $1500 laptops into the next generation of $1000 laptops, instead of bringing the features of $1000 laptops into a new generation of $750 laptops.
- gvb 17y ago
  Cheaper electronics helped, but my rose colored memories are that... * Manufacturers were using the lower cost electronics to add more features at the same price point rather than lowering their price point. The OLPC definitely shook that up. * The OLPC led the way using linux for the underlying OS, which led to the first netbooks using linux. This really shook up Microsoft, resulting in them offering deeply discounted copies of WinXP to netbook manufacturers to recapture that market ($15? vs. $50++? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook#Windows http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook#Windows, http://www.electronista.com/articles/09/04/19/ms.asks.15.for.xp.netbooks/ http://www.electronista.com/articles/09/04/19/ms.asks.15.for...). With respect to the last bullet, the OLPC drove down software prices as much as Moore's Law drove down hardware prices.

jcl 17y ago

The best link between OLPC and netbooks that I've found is Asus's CEO admitting that he was inspired by OLPC when they created the Eee PC: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=728044 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=728044

cema 17y ago
Thank you! This is exactly what I was looking for. Inspiration counts for something.