3 ms·
the thing about nonlinear dynamics/chaos is that it still allows for some degree of control and prediction -- not in the sense of being able to predict one spec
by lotharbot 11y ago
the thing about nonlinear dynamics/chaos is that it still allows for some degree of control and prediction -- not in the sense of being able to predict one specific trajectory, but in the sense of being able to make statistical predictions about likely regions for the trajectory to pass through, and even to be able to apply small controls to change a trajectory drastically and potentially keep it out of entire regions.
See, for example, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.00223.x/abstract http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.... (yet another tribolium paper. The favorite insect of nonlinear dynamics and chaos books everywhere.)
I don't think we need to overturn anything mathematically to be able to talk sensibly about climate models, predictions, complex forcing mechanisms, and control. We just have to stop putting the cart before the horse (or the shady politician before the scientist) and look at what can be done to stabilize the ecosystem -- not necessarily worrying about catastrophic predictions, but simply looking at some of the measurable negative effects (like acidifying oceans, brought up in a sibling comment) and determining how to control the system in order to slow or even reverse those effects.