Texas at one point did have rebel troops in Mexico before seceding and stayed independent for a few years before joining the US. California tried something simi

Texas at one point did have rebel troops in Mexico before seceding and stayed independent for a few years before joining the US. California tried something similar but then got swept up in the Mexican-American War. Even West Florida was "independent" for a few months before being annexed by the US, and of course the rest of Florida was Spanish but neglected by Madrid. So it is not that hard to imagine a Florida army going to war in Afghanistan, while Texas invaded Mexico and California remained neutral. If they had not been annexed by the US, they would likely either ally the US or have animosity with their southern neighbors due to strained relations from their independence wars. Also, theoretically a governor can refuse to deploy the state's National Guard. I could find one instance where in California, Governor Schwarzenegger declined the President's request to send National Guard troops to the border with Mexico. So California does have precedent of remaining neutral (said tongue-in-cheek)!