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"An interesting report, but is there any reason to conclude that "we are due"?" Yes, El Nino, which may bring torrents of rain this winter to the US west coast
by cbennett 11y ago
"An interesting report, but is there any reason to conclude that "we are due"?"
Yes, El Nino, which may bring torrents of rain this winter to the US west coast. The combination with epic drought will be disastrous, whether or not if fulfills the mythic criterion of an "ArkStorm'
FYI: occurrence of rain or lack thereof is not like flipping a coin; this is more like a chaotic system with non-linear patterns evolving; once we see a large-scale pattern that occurs, and we identify it recurring through time such as El Nino, we can spot its tell-tale signs ahead of time and warn folks that worse may be on the way. Nevertheless, there are no guarantees, all we can do is wait and watch- But it certainly changes our Prior to know about these recurrent global-weather-scale patterns.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-strongest-150913093902800.html http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-strongest-...
- nkurz 11y agooccurrence of rain or lack thereof is not like flipping a coin Yes, absolutely. El Nino is a fine reason to believe that the pattern will change. At a decadal scale, there is reason to believe that recent drought is a predictor of future rain. My point though was that there was not (a priori) a reason to believe that "It's been 500 years since California has been this dry" would imply "we are due" for a 1000 year storm.