4 ms·

Kodak, Bill Gates and efficient markets

21 points by tortilla 17y ago

thecoffeeman 17y ago
Considering the long term perspective of Buffett's investments, I'd say Bill was spot on. I could say oil companies are equally doomed and in a 10 year perspective I know I am right. That doesn't mean they won't make loads of money the coming few years.
lrm242 17y ago
Or, as John Maynard Keynes famously said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Stop trying to predict, let the price tell you what to do and follow the trend.
furtivefelon 17y ago
Who believes in the strong version of efficient market hypothesis anyways? One of the most interesting paradoxes of efficient markets is that to have efficient market, you must have people in the market who doesn't believe in efficient markets. There are a lot of them (the entire field of arbitrage is based on the hypothesis that market is not efficient)
- jplewicke 17y ago
  Alternatively, you can have a market where the prices fluctuates but no one ever trades. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-trade_theorem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-trade_theorem .
ankeshk 17y ago
There is big picture. And then there are details. There is trending. And then there is individual timing. Bill Gates pointed out a trend. Before most others. Finding trends and patterns before others = you will usually not lose money. But not being right on time = you may not make a lot of money either. To do awesome in the stock market, a finger on both the pulses is necessary: trending as well as timing. But it starts with the trends. (Imho - candlestick is a good method for finding the right time - but only after you've analyzed the trends.)
jrockway 17y ago
Doesn't Kodak make digital cameras, photo printers, and photo printing paper now? Sounds like their stock price is low because the company is not a good buy, not because they are in the wrong market.
- jstevens85 17y ago
  I don't think it's been able to make up for the revenue they've lost in film for still cameras.
  - gaius 17y ago
    Not only that, but the revenue from printing (paper, chemicals, services) as most photos now never make it into prints. Having said that, the only proven way to store digital photos long-term is presently archival paper, so...
    - borism 17y ago
      Interesting. Does Kodak have the best archival paper (and the tint) on the market?
      - gaius 17y ago
        Kodak and Fuji are about equivalent. You can print a digital image onto photo paper with a Frontier printer, and if you can keep it dry and out of direct sunlight it'll last a hundred years with no additional effort on your part. There's not yet a digital consumer media format that comes close to that.

21 points by tortilla 17y ago

Considering the long term perspective of Buffett's investments, I'd say Bill was spot on. I could say oil companies are equally doomed and in a 10 year perspective I know I am right. That doesn't mean they won't make loads of money the coming few years.

lrm242 17y ago

Or, as John Maynard Keynes famously said, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Stop trying to predict, let the price tell you what to do and follow the trend.

furtivefelon 17y ago

Who believes in the strong version of efficient market hypothesis anyways? One of the most interesting paradoxes of efficient markets is that to have efficient market, you must have people in the market who doesn't believe in efficient markets. There are a lot of them (the entire field of arbitrage is based on the hypothesis that market is not efficient)

jplewicke 17y ago
Alternatively, you can have a market where the prices fluctuates but no one ever trades. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-trade_theorem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-trade_theorem .

ankeshk 17y ago

There is big picture. And then there are details. There is trending. And then there is individual timing. Bill Gates pointed out a trend. Before most others. Finding trends and patterns before others = you will usually not lose money. But not being right on time = you may not make a lot of money either. To do awesome in the stock market, a finger on both the pulses is necessary: trending as well as timing. But it starts with the trends. (Imho - candlestick is a good method for finding the right time - but only after you've analyzed the trends.)

jrockway 17y ago

Doesn't Kodak make digital cameras, photo printers, and photo printing paper now? Sounds like their stock price is low because the company is not a good buy, not because they are in the wrong market.

jstevens85 17y ago
I don't think it's been able to make up for the revenue they've lost in film for still cameras.
- gaius 17y ago
  Not only that, but the revenue from printing (paper, chemicals, services) as most photos now never make it into prints. Having said that, the only proven way to store digital photos long-term is presently archival paper, so...
  - borism 17y ago
    Interesting. Does Kodak have the best archival paper (and the tint) on the market?
    - gaius 17y ago
      Kodak and Fuji are about equivalent. You can print a digital image onto photo paper with a Frontier printer, and if you can keep it dry and out of direct sunlight it'll last a hundred years with no additional effort on your part. There's not yet a digital consumer media format that comes close to that.