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It's the last thing on most people's minds right now with the drought, but an ARkStorm style event this winter (or even just heavy persistent rain and flooding)

It's the last thing on most people's minds right now with the drought, but an ARkStorm style event this winter (or even just heavy persistent rain and flooding) could be disastrous for the Sacramento delta levies, which are in a very delicate state. Hoping for a slow and steady refill of the reservoirs this winter...

matheweis 11y ago
I hate to be the harbinger, but it's shaping up for just that kind of scenario: "El Nino set to be strongest ever" http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-strongest-150913093902800.html http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-strongest-...
- gdubs 11y ago
  The question is whether the "Ridiculously Resilliant Ridge" -- the name for the blob of warm water sitting in the pacific -- will continue to prevent the moisture from reaching the costal states, as it has been doing for some time now.
pdkl95 11y ago
> Sacramento delta levies Hmm... as someone currently living in Woodland - which is right on the other side of the causeway across the immediate spill area for those levies - I'm wondering how safe this winter will be. Woodland is an old town, so it's on slightly higher ground than some of the surrounding areas, but apparently that may not matter.
- nicklaf 11y ago
  As a Davis resident, I was curious to get a more detailed map of the flood areas for a hypothetical ARkStorm than the one provided by the Wikipedia article on the topic [1]. To that end, I created an animation, morphing between a google maps screen-cap, and the USGS map of the flood areas [2]. I didn't get the alignment just right, but from the look of it Woodland would appear to be underwater (at least, according to this USGS flood model). That all said, is there really any evidence that a strong El Niño has anything at all to do with an ARkStorm? The Wikiepdia article on The Great Flood of 1862 [3] has this to say: "The weather pattern that caused this flood was not from an El Nino [sic]". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm#/media/File:California_ARkStorm_Flood_Areas.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm#/media/File:Californi... [2] http://imgur.com/cMScw5G http://imgur.com/cMScw5G [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862
  - pdkl95 11y ago
    Wow, that's interesting. It does look like the worst scenerios could (at least in theory) overflow the causway area and hit Davis/Woodland. It's right on the edge, though, so that may only be a concern in the most extreme events. I may have misinterpreted the situation re: ARkStorm, and I agree something closer to a "strong El Niño" seems far more likely. Still, it's interesting to know that flooding in this area is at least plausible.

matheweis 11y ago

I hate to be the harbinger, but it's shaping up for just that kind of scenario: "El Nino set to be strongest ever" http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-strongest-150913093902800.html http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/el-nino-set-strongest-...

gdubs 11y ago
The question is whether the "Ridiculously Resilliant Ridge" -- the name for the blob of warm water sitting in the pacific -- will continue to prevent the moisture from reaching the costal states, as it has been doing for some time now.

pdkl95 11y ago

> Sacramento delta levies Hmm... as someone currently living in Woodland - which is right on the other side of the causeway across the immediate spill area for those levies - I'm wondering how safe this winter will be. Woodland is an old town, so it's on slightly higher ground than some of the surrounding areas, but apparently that may not matter.

nicklaf 11y ago
As a Davis resident, I was curious to get a more detailed map of the flood areas for a hypothetical ARkStorm than the one provided by the Wikipedia article on the topic [1]. To that end, I created an animation, morphing between a google maps screen-cap, and the USGS map of the flood areas [2]. I didn't get the alignment just right, but from the look of it Woodland would appear to be underwater (at least, according to this USGS flood model). That all said, is there really any evidence that a strong El Niño has anything at all to do with an ARkStorm? The Wikiepdia article on The Great Flood of 1862 [3] has this to say: "The weather pattern that caused this flood was not from an El Nino [sic]". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm#/media/File:California_ARkStorm_Flood_Areas.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm#/media/File:Californi... [2] http://imgur.com/cMScw5G http://imgur.com/cMScw5G [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862
- pdkl95 11y ago
  Wow, that's interesting. It does look like the worst scenerios could (at least in theory) overflow the causway area and hit Davis/Woodland. It's right on the edge, though, so that may only be a concern in the most extreme events. I may have misinterpreted the situation re: ARkStorm, and I agree something closer to a "strong El Niño" seems far more likely. Still, it's interesting to know that flooding in this area is at least plausible.