3 ms·

Economic growth is not fundamentally measured in units of money and especially paying a larger amount for the same thing does not constitute economical growth.

by danbruc 11y ago

Economic growth is not fundamentally measured in units of money and especially paying a larger amount for the same thing does not constitute economical growth. Adding an additional zero to all bills is just a rescaling of units, it has absolutely no substance.

Retric 11y ago
Video video games are part of GDP when in game stuff can be sold. With player power inflation being a thing, GDP becomes unbound. Note this works even if computing resources stop increasing because introducing a blue ray gun that's better than the green Ray gun does not take more FLOPs.
- VLM 11y ago
  Wouldn't the same level of rationality required to create and sustain that huge and complicated marketplace, when applied to a micro level prevent all the participants from wasting their lives trying to acquire blue ray guns?
  - rwallace 11y ago
    Intuitively you would think so, but the world doesn't seem to work in accordance with our intuition.
- phkahler 11y ago
  >> video games are part of GDP when in game stuff can be sold. With player power inflation being a thing, GDP becomes unbound. I look forward to a future where most of the economy is optional and I can walk away from it and retire in complete comfort. Hint, we're getting there and if you're not building real wealth you're going to miss it and be FORCED to play video games to pay me rent on the physical world you take up space in.
notahacker 11y ago
Luckily, simply rescaling the bills is exactly what my post didn't propose. Buying Photoshop instead of using GIMP or Abercrombie instead of George consumes little or no more real resources, but by any regular measure of economic growth it's an increase in real output if people switch. Same applies to people buying shiny new Teslas that consume less real resources than the low-end Ford they used to drive. Or indeed, as I hinted I suspect will increasingly be the case in future, people spending sizeable proportions of their income on cures for chronic ailments that take an relatively trivial amount of energy to implement. Economic growth is fundamentally not measured in units of energy.
- VLM 11y ago
  All you've done is scaling games. Eventually you still hit a physical wall. For my relaxing woodworking hobby I have a midrange table saw. In eternal economic growth I could improve my hobby by buying a much better saw, a giant cast iron table beast with 2 HP motor and a kilobuck fence system and kilobuck dust extraction (instead of my cheap hundred buck system) maybe given infinite money something better than current top of the line, or better than can currently be imagined, could be sold to me. Fundamentally there is a limit of the theoretical best imaginable table saw. At that point economic growth ceases. This also happens with cars and houses. It does not appear possible to design and build a car that is road legal better than a couple million dollars, given income inequality we should be able to charge $25M for a super car and there would be plenty of sales at that level, but engineers can't find a way to spend that much even on custom cars. But you argue the perfect table saw could be value engineered to fail often. OK then, you bought yourself a couple more orders of magnitude of economic growth but still hit physical limits. Now I replace my saw every time I use it, heck, every cut I make. Eventually there comes a fundamental physical limit to how many boxed saws I can slide down my basement stairs. So you implement drone delivery of table saws. OK then we run into a limitation of living in a 3-d universe, where the lifespan of my table saws are so small I can't deliver them fast enough to make money producing more of them, and the waste heat is so high my skin burns. Now at those fundamental physical limits, how do we increase economic activity? There is another fundamental physical limit based on income inequality. If you take total income or wealth across the country and divide it equally, perhaps everyone in the USA could buy a table saw like mine, today, which sounds awesome, because fine carpentry is fun as an art form, etc. However we concentrate all our income and wealth at the top. And none of us (statistically) are at the top. Eventually like the last days of the Roman Republic we'll have all the wealth owned by one dude. And if Dude doesn't like carpentry as a hobby, and no one else can afford even the cheapest of table saws, then Dude can increase his income and wealth into perpetuity but table saw sales will drop to zero permanently, even if the plan was to eternally sustain economic growth by making and selling table saws. This is our medium term future. The economic problem with income inequality or our current return to feudalism is that the one dude at the top can't spend money fast enough or wisely enough to keep the economy alive, much less eternally growing. And if a detailed analysis of economic conditions shows that for a couple generations all we've been doing is transferring wealth upwards to the rich rather than actually being productive, then obviously that has to stop once there is no more wealth to extract from the peasants, even if for a couple decades, reports of economic activity look very busy. Its like pumping oil out of a well and thinking the well is bottomless, for a little while you can "create" oil and oil wealth out of nothingness, but eventually you run into a problem with that business model once the cheap oil is all pumped out. Economic activity is just a way to keep score in the competition to use energy and resources ever faster, well, ever faster until it isn't anymore.

by danbruc 11y ago

Retric 11y ago

Video video games are part of GDP when in game stuff can be sold. With player power inflation being a thing, GDP becomes unbound. Note this works even if computing resources stop increasing because introducing a blue ray gun that's better than the green Ray gun does not take more FLOPs.

VLM 11y ago
Wouldn't the same level of rationality required to create and sustain that huge and complicated marketplace, when applied to a micro level prevent all the participants from wasting their lives trying to acquire blue ray guns?
- rwallace 11y ago
  Intuitively you would think so, but the world doesn't seem to work in accordance with our intuition.
phkahler 11y ago
>> video games are part of GDP when in game stuff can be sold. With player power inflation being a thing, GDP becomes unbound. I look forward to a future where most of the economy is optional and I can walk away from it and retire in complete comfort. Hint, we're getting there and if you're not building real wealth you're going to miss it and be FORCED to play video games to pay me rent on the physical world you take up space in.

notahacker 11y ago

Luckily, simply rescaling the bills is exactly what my post didn't propose. Buying Photoshop instead of using GIMP or Abercrombie instead of George consumes little or no more real resources, but by any regular measure of economic growth it's an increase in real output if people switch. Same applies to people buying shiny new Teslas that consume less real resources than the low-end Ford they used to drive. Or indeed, as I hinted I suspect will increasingly be the case in future, people spending sizeable proportions of their income on cures for chronic ailments that take an relatively trivial amount of energy to implement. Economic growth is fundamentally not measured in units of energy.

VLM 11y ago
All you've done is scaling games. Eventually you still hit a physical wall. For my relaxing woodworking hobby I have a midrange table saw. In eternal economic growth I could improve my hobby by buying a much better saw, a giant cast iron table beast with 2 HP motor and a kilobuck fence system and kilobuck dust extraction (instead of my cheap hundred buck system) maybe given infinite money something better than current top of the line, or better than can currently be imagined, could be sold to me. Fundamentally there is a limit of the theoretical best imaginable table saw. At that point economic growth ceases. This also happens with cars and houses. It does not appear possible to design and build a car that is road legal better than a couple million dollars, given income inequality we should be able to charge $25M for a super car and there would be plenty of sales at that level, but engineers can't find a way to spend that much even on custom cars. But you argue the perfect table saw could be value engineered to fail often. OK then, you bought yourself a couple more orders of magnitude of economic growth but still hit physical limits. Now I replace my saw every time I use it, heck, every cut I make. Eventually there comes a fundamental physical limit to how many boxed saws I can slide down my basement stairs. So you implement drone delivery of table saws. OK then we run into a limitation of living in a 3-d universe, where the lifespan of my table saws are so small I can't deliver them fast enough to make money producing more of them, and the waste heat is so high my skin burns. Now at those fundamental physical limits, how do we increase economic activity? There is another fundamental physical limit based on income inequality. If you take total income or wealth across the country and divide it equally, perhaps everyone in the USA could buy a table saw like mine, today, which sounds awesome, because fine carpentry is fun as an art form, etc. However we concentrate all our income and wealth at the top. And none of us (statistically) are at the top. Eventually like the last days of the Roman Republic we'll have all the wealth owned by one dude. And if Dude doesn't like carpentry as a hobby, and no one else can afford even the cheapest of table saws, then Dude can increase his income and wealth into perpetuity but table saw sales will drop to zero permanently, even if the plan was to eternally sustain economic growth by making and selling table saws. This is our medium term future. The economic problem with income inequality or our current return to feudalism is that the one dude at the top can't spend money fast enough or wisely enough to keep the economy alive, much less eternally growing. And if a detailed analysis of economic conditions shows that for a couple generations all we've been doing is transferring wealth upwards to the rich rather than actually being productive, then obviously that has to stop once there is no more wealth to extract from the peasants, even if for a couple decades, reports of economic activity look very busy. Its like pumping oil out of a well and thinking the well is bottomless, for a little while you can "create" oil and oil wealth out of nothingness, but eventually you run into a problem with that business model once the cheap oil is all pumped out. Economic activity is just a way to keep score in the competition to use energy and resources ever faster, well, ever faster until it isn't anymore.