3 ms·
I think it was pretty damn scary, and I would be very interested to see any sources you know about that suggest otherwise. I'm not being sarcastic, I really wou
by ClintEhrlich 11y ago
I think it was pretty damn scary, and I would be very interested to see any sources you know about that suggest otherwise. I'm not being sarcastic, I really would appreciate a link if you have one. I have read some arguments about why the Russian submarine captain was not actually committed to using the nuclear torpedo, but nothing about the risk of escalation having been low.
Based on my memory of the Cold War literature, there was quite a bit of concern about a naval nuclear exchange triggering strategic nuclear war. A quick search seemed to confirm my recollection: "[T]he doctrines and operational procedures associated with sea-based nuclear weapons are subject to less well-defined thresholds and, in some cases, are quite provocative. Moreover, there are good reasons for believing that the first use of nuclear weapons could take place at sea, and for concern that the escalation dynamics of nuclear warfare in this theater are far less constrained than those that would attend nuclear operations on land." (Ball, Desmond. "Nuclear war at sea." International Security (1985): 3-31.)
The risk of escalation would have been intensified during the missile crisis, because the underlying dispute involved strategic weapons. If a Soviet nuclear weapon destroyed an American carrier battle group, at minimum the U.S. would have retaliated with tactical nuclear weapons. And there would be significant pressure to target land-based military installations in order to achieve a proportionate response, because the Soviets were so much less dependent on their Navy than the U.S. At that point, all bets are off, particularly given the Soviet's proclivity for interpreting any American action in the worst possible light.
Escalation to extinction-level global nuclear war was certainly not guaranteed, but it was arguably the most probable outcome. One cannot reasonably dispute that it was well within the realm of possibility.