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For all the bubble talk...if there is any sign of a bubble, it is Bitcoin. Bitcoins are completely worthless, they have no value. The price action shows it -

by Ologn 11y ago

For all the bubble talk...if there is any sign of a bubble, it is Bitcoin. Bitcoins are completely worthless, they have no value. The price action shows it - they are currently bouncing between $230 and $235, six months ago that was $260, and one year ago it was $400. It is headed to $0. The smell of scam is all over it. The inventor hides his identity. Bitcoin companies are awash in scams and criminal charges - Mt. Gox, Butterfly Labs etc. The Bitcoin hype machine can't answer one simple question - why do Bitcoins have any value? They can't give a rational answer to this. You can get a Florida real estate swamp land sales shop, or MLM organization running for a little while, but eventually it folds. I'm glad to see that two people who have had a long, long history of observing financial markets agree with me - Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They've been around long enough to see every snake oil scam under the planet. That's why Munger says Bitcoins are "rat poison" and Buffett expressed similar sentiments. Incidentally, I knew this when Bitcoin was $460 and even mentioned it on HN ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6753545 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6753545 ). Those who listened to me saved themselves from losing half their investment. Soon enough I will be pointing to this post when it halves again to $115-$118.

kordless 11y ago
Making a value immutable instantiates trust in a system. Systems that have trust in them are, historically, worth more than untrustworthy systems. Blamers, like you, spend most of their time trying to convince others what to do based on biased arguments. Biases are cheap hacks/workarounds to establishing human trust and have no value to anyone, even if they did listen to you.
vfdfv 11y ago
> Bernie Sanders scam Bernie Madoff? Different guy.
joeyspn 11y ago
> The Bitcoin hype machine can't answer one simple question - why do Bitcoins have any value? They can't give a rational answer to this. The answer is simple: Because there's enough number of people that agrees to use it as commodity money and medium of exchange.
- Ologn 11y ago
  That's a tautological answer. When a Bitcoin was worth over 4 times its present value a number of months ago, the same answer could be given - "it's worth that because people will pay for that". I can give a rational answer for why commodities like apples have value, or a gallon of gasoline, or a table, or a shirt. Even houses in 2007 real estate development projects in the outskirts of Sacramento have a rational (if at one time overblown) value. There is no rational explanation why a hashed number called a Bitcoin has any value. A bar of gold had value 4000 years ago, it has value today, and if the concept of commodity value exists 4000 years from now, it will have value then. As I said, I pointed all of this out on HN before Bitcoins lost half of their value. I'm quite confident they will be halved again from their present value, and eventually hit $0. They're worthless hashes. Your explanation for why they have value would not have me comfortable as someone holding onto such commodities. Warren Buffett and Charlie ("Bitcoins are rat poison") Munger agree with me.
  - throwaway3453 11y ago
    I suspect you're being deliberately ignorant to why Bitcoin, a fixed quantity commodity that is immune to counterfeiting, has value. You're confounding physical utility and symbolic value. I don't have a problem with Bitcoin becoming a wild success or another case of Tulip Mania. I do have a problem with your feigned ignorance just so you can maintain your initial position. You're doing yourself a disservice for life. There's no shame in understanding a concept more and discarding misconceptions.
    - Ologn 11y ago
      > I suspect you're being deliberately ignorant to why Bitcoin, a fixed quantity commodity that is immune to counterfeiting, has value A word in your sentence contains the answer to your statement. Commodity. I do not think Bitcoin is a commodity. Commodities are what I can go down to the store and buy - apples, flashlights. Maybe go to another store and buy a bar of gold. All of these things are useful. Precious metals like gold even have properties which allow them to be good currencies (portable, divisible, durable, uniform...) Bitcoins are not like these commodities - they are not consumed! Commodities are. > You're confounding physical utility and symbolic value I would not want to conflate the idea of arbitrary utility and the standard price and exchange value of a commodity. Obviously they are different - as someone else alluded to, an apple has more utility to someone who is very hungry than someone who is not. > There's no shame in understanding a concept more and discarding misconceptions. As I said earlier - I said right here on HN back when Bitcoin's price was twice what it is now that Bitcoin's price would crash to $0. That is what "maintaining my initial position" is. So far my prediction has been going in the direction I envisaged! Who should be understanding concepts more and discarding misconceptions, me who knew Bitcoins would lose half their value, or those who were hyping it back then?
brighton36 11y ago
The intrinsic value of bitcoin (if this matters) is immutable storage. You see this utilized with projects such as counterparty. The non-intrinsic value of bitcoin is the ability to engage in censored commerce. (backpage, wikileaks, silk road, etc.)
- Ologn 11y ago
  > The intrinsic value of bitcoin (if this matters) is immutable storage. You see this utilized with projects such as counterparty. I have heard people talk about the storage aspect of Bitcoin as having value before, and it's probably the best argument for Bitcoin having any inherent value whatsoever. You're making a more intelligent observation than most of the people in this thread. That said, Bitcoin has a $3.4 billion market cap. Litecoin has a $119 million market cap, and even the joke crypto-currency Dogecoin has a $12 million market cap - and they can be used as storage mediums as well. As a storage medium, Bitcoin would be way overpriced. It's price is due to the other points I mentioned, mainly the hype.

by Ologn 11y ago

kordless 11y ago

Making a value immutable instantiates trust in a system. Systems that have trust in them are, historically, worth more than untrustworthy systems. Blamers, like you, spend most of their time trying to convince others what to do based on biased arguments. Biases are cheap hacks/workarounds to establishing human trust and have no value to anyone, even if they did listen to you.

vfdfv 11y ago

> Bernie Sanders scam Bernie Madoff? Different guy.

joeyspn 11y ago

> The Bitcoin hype machine can't answer one simple question - why do Bitcoins have any value? They can't give a rational answer to this. The answer is simple: Because there's enough number of people that agrees to use it as commodity money and medium of exchange.

Ologn 11y ago
That's a tautological answer. When a Bitcoin was worth over 4 times its present value a number of months ago, the same answer could be given - "it's worth that because people will pay for that". I can give a rational answer for why commodities like apples have value, or a gallon of gasoline, or a table, or a shirt. Even houses in 2007 real estate development projects in the outskirts of Sacramento have a rational (if at one time overblown) value. There is no rational explanation why a hashed number called a Bitcoin has any value. A bar of gold had value 4000 years ago, it has value today, and if the concept of commodity value exists 4000 years from now, it will have value then. As I said, I pointed all of this out on HN before Bitcoins lost half of their value. I'm quite confident they will be halved again from their present value, and eventually hit $0. They're worthless hashes. Your explanation for why they have value would not have me comfortable as someone holding onto such commodities. Warren Buffett and Charlie ("Bitcoins are rat poison") Munger agree with me.
- throwaway3453 11y ago
  I suspect you're being deliberately ignorant to why Bitcoin, a fixed quantity commodity that is immune to counterfeiting, has value. You're confounding physical utility and symbolic value. I don't have a problem with Bitcoin becoming a wild success or another case of Tulip Mania. I do have a problem with your feigned ignorance just so you can maintain your initial position. You're doing yourself a disservice for life. There's no shame in understanding a concept more and discarding misconceptions.
  - Ologn 11y ago
    > I suspect you're being deliberately ignorant to why Bitcoin, a fixed quantity commodity that is immune to counterfeiting, has value A word in your sentence contains the answer to your statement. Commodity. I do not think Bitcoin is a commodity. Commodities are what I can go down to the store and buy - apples, flashlights. Maybe go to another store and buy a bar of gold. All of these things are useful. Precious metals like gold even have properties which allow them to be good currencies (portable, divisible, durable, uniform...) Bitcoins are not like these commodities - they are not consumed! Commodities are. > You're confounding physical utility and symbolic value I would not want to conflate the idea of arbitrary utility and the standard price and exchange value of a commodity. Obviously they are different - as someone else alluded to, an apple has more utility to someone who is very hungry than someone who is not. > There's no shame in understanding a concept more and discarding misconceptions. As I said earlier - I said right here on HN back when Bitcoin's price was twice what it is now that Bitcoin's price would crash to $0. That is what "maintaining my initial position" is. So far my prediction has been going in the direction I envisaged! Who should be understanding concepts more and discarding misconceptions, me who knew Bitcoins would lose half their value, or those who were hyping it back then?

brighton36 11y ago

The intrinsic value of bitcoin (if this matters) is immutable storage. You see this utilized with projects such as counterparty. The non-intrinsic value of bitcoin is the ability to engage in censored commerce. (backpage, wikileaks, silk road, etc.)

Ologn 11y ago
> The intrinsic value of bitcoin (if this matters) is immutable storage. You see this utilized with projects such as counterparty. I have heard people talk about the storage aspect of Bitcoin as having value before, and it's probably the best argument for Bitcoin having any inherent value whatsoever. You're making a more intelligent observation than most of the people in this thread. That said, Bitcoin has a $3.4 billion market cap. Litecoin has a $119 million market cap, and even the joke crypto-currency Dogecoin has a $12 million market cap - and they can be used as storage mediums as well. As a storage medium, Bitcoin would be way overpriced. It's price is due to the other points I mentioned, mainly the hype.