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But in this particular case, the answer is either yes with 100% probability or no with 100% probability, depending on whether it was written by Pynchon or not ;
by savanaly 11y ago
But in this particular case, the answer is either yes with 100% probability or no with 100% probability, depending on whether it was written by Pynchon or not ;)
- elektromekatron 11y agoNot if only half of it is written by Pynchon.
- JadeNB 11y agoBut that's like saying that the odds of winning the lottery are that you win with 100% probability or you lose with 100% probability, depending on whether your numbers match or not.
- ctdonath 11y agoThat is a brilliant observation that I shall abuse frequently. Nicely complements my preferred "statistics mean nothing when they happen to you."
- JadeNB 11y ago'Brilliant' is overselling it—it's just an update of the old joke "this chuck is 50% rabbit meat; I make it with one rabbit and one horse"—but thanks!
- spacehome 11y agoYes, probabilities are not statements about the world; they're statements about your knowledge of the world. As you gain knowledge, the probabilities (as far as you can compute) change. This is also how different people can compute different probabilities for the same event.