4 ms·

According to Linander’s law of headlines, the answer to this polar Yes/No questions would be equal to a coin toss. So maybe yes, and maybe no.

savanaly 11y ago
But in this particular case, the answer is either yes with 100% probability or no with 100% probability, depending on whether it was written by Pynchon or not ;)
- elektromekatron 11y ago
  Not if only half of it is written by Pynchon.
- JadeNB 11y ago
  But that's like saying that the odds of winning the lottery are that you win with 100% probability or you lose with 100% probability, depending on whether your numbers match or not.
  - ctdonath 11y ago
    That is a brilliant observation that I shall abuse frequently. Nicely complements my preferred "statistics mean nothing when they happen to you."
    - JadeNB 11y ago
      'Brilliant' is overselling it—it's just an update of the old joke "this chuck is 50% rabbit meat; I make it with one rabbit and one horse"—but thanks!
  - spacehome 11y ago
    Yes, probabilities are not statements about the world; they're statements about your knowledge of the world. As you gain knowledge, the probabilities (as far as you can compute) change. This is also how different people can compute different probabilities for the same event.
    - ninguem2 11y ago
      Spotted the Bayesian.
      - spacehome 11y ago
        Umm, I guess? What are the alternatives?
        JadeNB 11y ago
        Frequentist? http://www.austincc.edu/mparker/stat/nov04/talk_nov04.pdf http://www.austincc.edu/mparker/stat/nov04/talk_nov04.pdf
        spacehome 11y ago
        I find it difficult to believe that Bayesian and Frequentist exhaust the space of possible hypotheses.
        JadeNB 11y ago
        I didn't mean to suggest that they did; but you asked for alternatives, and frequentism is one (even if perhaps not the only one).
olympus 11y ago
But according to Betteridge's law we should answer "no." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
Dotnaught 11y ago
If only we had some technology that could help... http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/software-helps-identify-anonymous-writers-or-helps-them-stay-that-way/ http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/software-helps-iden...

savanaly 11y ago

But in this particular case, the answer is either yes with 100% probability or no with 100% probability, depending on whether it was written by Pynchon or not ;)

elektromekatron 11y ago
Not if only half of it is written by Pynchon.
JadeNB 11y ago
But that's like saying that the odds of winning the lottery are that you win with 100% probability or you lose with 100% probability, depending on whether your numbers match or not.
- ctdonath 11y ago
  That is a brilliant observation that I shall abuse frequently. Nicely complements my preferred "statistics mean nothing when they happen to you."
  - JadeNB 11y ago
    'Brilliant' is overselling it—it's just an update of the old joke "this chuck is 50% rabbit meat; I make it with one rabbit and one horse"—but thanks!
- spacehome 11y ago
  Yes, probabilities are not statements about the world; they're statements about your knowledge of the world. As you gain knowledge, the probabilities (as far as you can compute) change. This is also how different people can compute different probabilities for the same event.
  - ninguem2 11y ago
    Spotted the Bayesian.
    - spacehome 11y ago
      Umm, I guess? What are the alternatives?
      - JadeNB 11y ago
        Frequentist? http://www.austincc.edu/mparker/stat/nov04/talk_nov04.pdf http://www.austincc.edu/mparker/stat/nov04/talk_nov04.pdf
        spacehome 11y ago
        I find it difficult to believe that Bayesian and Frequentist exhaust the space of possible hypotheses.
        JadeNB 11y ago
        I didn't mean to suggest that they did; but you asked for alternatives, and frequentism is one (even if perhaps not the only one).

olympus 11y ago

But according to Betteridge's law we should answer "no." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

Dotnaught 11y ago

If only we had some technology that could help... http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/software-helps-identify-anonymous-writers-or-helps-them-stay-that-way/ http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/software-helps-iden...