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My take on why this has no change in denting the console gaming market: https://plus.google.com/+RayCromwell/posts/gENFJnoUUWK https://plus.google.com/+RayCromw

My take on why this has no change in denting the console gaming market: https://plus.google.com/+RayCromwell/posts/gENFJnoUUWK https://plus.google.com/+RayCromwell/posts/gENFJnoUUWK Pundits are out in force suggesting that the new Apple TV is going to somehow put traditional game consoles out of business, but this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the traditional console market and the difference between console games and casual gamers. The iPhone and iPad has massively grown the casual gaming market, bringing whole new demographics into gaming, and it has disrupted the handheld gaming market, but it has not done so at the expense of console gaming. The core defining characteristic of casual gamers is the ability to get into, and out of a game quickly. They consume games in small bitesize pieces, waiting in line, in downtime between other activities, not in multi-hour binges. Being mobile helps this mode of consumption, because your mood for gaming can arise in many circumstances, and you can instantly satiate it on your mobile phone, without having to arrange TV time or disturb someone else. By contrast, TV console gaming has a high transaction cost. You have to travel to your living room, turn on the TV, find the controllers, boot up the game, make sure no one else wants to use the TV for other purposes, etc. Moreover, console games are designed more as a TV experience, for someone to play 30, 60, 120, even 240 minutes at a time. The new Apple TV, from it's leaked specs, is essentially a casual gaming machine hooked up to a TV. This might spell trouble for the Nintendo Wii, but Sony and Microsoft? The Apple HW is no where close to current generation console level specs, and anyone creating content for it will be faced with casual gamer price expectations. How many publishers will want to spend tens of millions of dollars on triple-A titles and sell them in the app store? That would be like Marvel selling their next movie for 99 cents. Is EA going to put out a $1.99 version of StarWars Battlefront? They're not going to get console ports or exclusives of current games until they've exhausted the markets on other platforms. So, without content to draw the people who want a 2 hour immersive gaming experience, they won't get console gamers. But what of casual gamers? How many people will exchange the convenience of playing Angry Birds on their phone with playing it on their TV? My guess is, people have moved on from wanting to sit in front of their TV and that casual gamers are mostly mobile gamers. I don't think this product fits either market very well, and the primary use case of it will remain video streaming, of which is is much more expensive (and less capable, no 4k streaming) than cheaper streamers already on the market.

rsynnott 11y ago
It seems like you're assuming that all games are basically either Candy Crush or MGS5. In reality, there's a lot in between, and various indie games which work well with the touch interface have actually had a fair bit of success on the iPad at rather premium price points. FTL and Papers Please, say, are arguably better on the iPad than on PC (both benefit from multitouch), and go for $10 each. There's a lot of potential for midrange semi-casual console oriented games like Rocket League or Starwhal here, and realistically, a surprising number of consoles are used mostly for that type of game. I think there's also some long-term potential to hit the triple-A market, particularly if the console vendors keep up their current ~7 year refresh cycle. This is obviously a lot less powerful than current-gen consoles, it triple-As are still big sellers for last-gen consoles, and the gap will close as Apple refreshes this every year or so. It's far cheaper than a console, and also smaller and presumably silent. I think it'll find a place.
- cromwellian 11y ago
  The controller alone dooms it to most console games. Sure, some games work well on the interface. But those games are exactly the games I don't want on a TV. Do I really want to play Papers Please on a TV with a tiny touch pad controller remote as opposed to on my lap? This is too much of a compromise system that sucks at both ends of the spectrum. It's not as good as the iPad for touch games, and it's not as good at consoles at FPS, Strategy, Fighters, etc. Are people really looking for a niche console inbetween?
  - rsynnott 11y ago
    To be clear, I don't think people will be playing Papers Please on this; the interface isn't at all suitable. There are plenty of iOS compatible controllers already available which presumably will work with this out of the box. I see this as being potentially huge for people who want to play some console-y games but don't want to spend 400$ On a large noisy box. Also, it could potentially be big for indie devs who want to write console-y games; the current consoles are still not terribly indie-friendly, and in practice most popular indie console games started life as PC games.

rsynnott 11y ago

It seems like you're assuming that all games are basically either Candy Crush or MGS5. In reality, there's a lot in between, and various indie games which work well with the touch interface have actually had a fair bit of success on the iPad at rather premium price points. FTL and Papers Please, say, are arguably better on the iPad than on PC (both benefit from multitouch), and go for $10 each. There's a lot of potential for midrange semi-casual console oriented games like Rocket League or Starwhal here, and realistically, a surprising number of consoles are used mostly for that type of game. I think there's also some long-term potential to hit the triple-A market, particularly if the console vendors keep up their current ~7 year refresh cycle. This is obviously a lot less powerful than current-gen consoles, it triple-As are still big sellers for last-gen consoles, and the gap will close as Apple refreshes this every year or so. It's far cheaper than a console, and also smaller and presumably silent. I think it'll find a place.

cromwellian 11y ago
The controller alone dooms it to most console games. Sure, some games work well on the interface. But those games are exactly the games I don't want on a TV. Do I really want to play Papers Please on a TV with a tiny touch pad controller remote as opposed to on my lap? This is too much of a compromise system that sucks at both ends of the spectrum. It's not as good as the iPad for touch games, and it's not as good at consoles at FPS, Strategy, Fighters, etc. Are people really looking for a niche console inbetween?
- rsynnott 11y ago
  To be clear, I don't think people will be playing Papers Please on this; the interface isn't at all suitable. There are plenty of iOS compatible controllers already available which presumably will work with this out of the box. I see this as being potentially huge for people who want to play some console-y games but don't want to spend 400$ On a large noisy box. Also, it could potentially be big for indie devs who want to write console-y games; the current consoles are still not terribly indie-friendly, and in practice most popular indie console games started life as PC games.