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>I don't think there's any more reason to think that will be an indefinite trend than there was to think automotive assembly would always be a high-skill job.

>I don't think there's any more reason to think that will be an indefinite trend than there was to think automotive assembly would always be a high-skill job. It isn't. One day even programmers will, in general, be replaced. The way I see it is that programmers will be one of the last ones to be replaced because once they are replaced, everything else that can be replaced that isn't will soon follow (as replacing programmers will send the process of replacing such jobs into overdrive). Everyone learning programming does not solve the bigger problem for society, but it is probably one of the safest careers even if it isn't safe.

sanderjd 11y ago
Ah, see, I disagree. There are things that are less fundamentally automatable, like interpersonal relationships, art, and research. We need to figure out how to make those sorts of things make more sense economically, rather than racing to the bottom on traditional types of labor.
- Lawtonfogle 11y ago
  Art is becoming automated. Even if it never makes it to the top tier of creativity that humans possess (and it may very well make it there), very few humans will make it to a tier high enough to compete with the automation, especially on the skill per effort chart. For research, I haven't paid much attention to automation for stereotypical research (scientists doing science in labs), but there is a lot of automation happening in discovery process for legal research that is cutting down the number of individuals needed. I doubt it has maxed out the potential for automation anymore than other areas. As for interpersonal relationships, they may also be possible to automate (robots, simulations, etc. that manage to cross the uncanny valley combined with increasing knowledge of how human interactions work lead me to think it is possible eventually). I expect that we will even see the world's oldest profession one day have competition from automation. I think one key to remember with automation is that people are willing to skimp on quality to save money. So even if we cannot replicate the work of humans to the same level of quality, automation can still compete when comparing quality per cost such that the paths are not a viable career option for most people.

sanderjd 11y ago

Ah, see, I disagree. There are things that are less fundamentally automatable, like interpersonal relationships, art, and research. We need to figure out how to make those sorts of things make more sense economically, rather than racing to the bottom on traditional types of labor.

Lawtonfogle 11y ago
Art is becoming automated. Even if it never makes it to the top tier of creativity that humans possess (and it may very well make it there), very few humans will make it to a tier high enough to compete with the automation, especially on the skill per effort chart. For research, I haven't paid much attention to automation for stereotypical research (scientists doing science in labs), but there is a lot of automation happening in discovery process for legal research that is cutting down the number of individuals needed. I doubt it has maxed out the potential for automation anymore than other areas. As for interpersonal relationships, they may also be possible to automate (robots, simulations, etc. that manage to cross the uncanny valley combined with increasing knowledge of how human interactions work lead me to think it is possible eventually). I expect that we will even see the world's oldest profession one day have competition from automation. I think one key to remember with automation is that people are willing to skimp on quality to save money. So even if we cannot replicate the work of humans to the same level of quality, automation can still compete when comparing quality per cost such that the paths are not a viable career option for most people.