4 ms·

I am guessing that probability is close to zero. The presidential race is a multi-stage contest. Trump happens to be good at working the current stage, but his

I am guessing that probability is close to zero. The presidential race is a multi-stage contest. Trump happens to be good at working the current stage, but his current actions will eventually catch up to him later. I used to be a big fan of the show Survivor. Russell Hantz had a similar run: twice in a row he made it all the way to the end, but because of how he got there he could not actually win the grand prize. Trump is similar: he is going to pull a lot of stunts, get lots of attention and spend lots of money. Then the rubber meets the road and he'll lose. The real question is whether he is going to be the Republican nominee, because if he is then they'll be handing the victory over to the Democrats. My guess is that like many vanity candidates before Trump, he'll fizzle out before the primaries, but if he does make it even more hilarity will ensue.

oskarth 11y ago
How much did you bet at what odds did Trump won't become president? Surely it's a wise investment strategy, given how certain you seem to think the future is. Odds are something like 15:1, so if you think it's 150:1 - or more - that's a 10x certain return. It's a no-brainer, in that case. The point is that talk is cheap. Of course it's more likely that he won't become president, but don't rule out the chance that he might. If you do, it'd be wise to put your money where your mouth is.
- IgorPartola 11y ago
  I generally don't gamble, that's why I didn't bet any money on this race, or any other. In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. You are right, talk is cheap and I am just shooting my mouth here, like everyone here.
  - DanBC 11y ago
    > In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-president... Lots of people taking bets.
  - tim333 11y ago
    You can bet either way here https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.10... It's a peer to peer platform. Approx £500k punted on the US president so far on betfair. For what it's worth Nate Silver thinks he has no chance.

oskarth 11y ago

How much did you bet at what odds did Trump won't become president? Surely it's a wise investment strategy, given how certain you seem to think the future is. Odds are something like 15:1, so if you think it's 150:1 - or more - that's a 10x certain return. It's a no-brainer, in that case. The point is that talk is cheap. Of course it's more likely that he won't become president, but don't rule out the chance that he might. If you do, it'd be wise to put your money where your mouth is.

IgorPartola 11y ago
I generally don't gamble, that's why I didn't bet any money on this race, or any other. In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. You are right, talk is cheap and I am just shooting my mouth here, like everyone here.
- DanBC 11y ago
  > In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-president... Lots of people taking bets.
- tim333 11y ago
  You can bet either way here https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.10... It's a peer to peer platform. Approx £500k punted on the US president so far on betfair. For what it's worth Nate Silver thinks he has no chance.