5 ms·

Trump is certainly not trolling. Don't underestimate the probability that he will win.

by oskarth 11y ago

dagw 11y ago
His probability of winning doesn't affect the fact that he's trolling. In fact winning would just make the troll more successful.
IgorPartola 11y ago
I am guessing that probability is close to zero. The presidential race is a multi-stage contest. Trump happens to be good at working the current stage, but his current actions will eventually catch up to him later. I used to be a big fan of the show Survivor. Russell Hantz had a similar run: twice in a row he made it all the way to the end, but because of how he got there he could not actually win the grand prize. Trump is similar: he is going to pull a lot of stunts, get lots of attention and spend lots of money. Then the rubber meets the road and he'll lose. The real question is whether he is going to be the Republican nominee, because if he is then they'll be handing the victory over to the Democrats. My guess is that like many vanity candidates before Trump, he'll fizzle out before the primaries, but if he does make it even more hilarity will ensue.
- oskarth 11y ago
  How much did you bet at what odds did Trump won't become president? Surely it's a wise investment strategy, given how certain you seem to think the future is. Odds are something like 15:1, so if you think it's 150:1 - or more - that's a 10x certain return. It's a no-brainer, in that case. The point is that talk is cheap. Of course it's more likely that he won't become president, but don't rule out the chance that he might. If you do, it'd be wise to put your money where your mouth is.
  - IgorPartola 11y ago
    I generally don't gamble, that's why I didn't bet any money on this race, or any other. In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. You are right, talk is cheap and I am just shooting my mouth here, like everyone here.
    - DanBC 11y ago
      > In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-president... Lots of people taking bets.
    - tim333 11y ago
      You can bet either way here https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.10... It's a peer to peer platform. Approx £500k punted on the US president so far on betfair. For what it's worth Nate Silver thinks he has no chance.
tim333 11y ago
I put some money on Trump at 11:1 so I'm estimating the probability at higher than that. Scott Adams has a mildly entertaining series of blog posts on why he thinks he'll win. Roughly that he's good at persuasion techniques. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/128552964506/the-outsider-explanation-part-of-my-trump http://blog.dilbert.com/post/128552964506/the-outsider-expla... One reason I think he may do it is that he's spoken out against the carried interest exemption for hedge funds. It seems obviously fair that hedge fundies should pay as much or more as doctors and nurses and the like but the mainstream politicians don't touch it because they want the campaign contributions and are scared of them funding their opponents instead. I'm hypothesising that the voters are fed up with their representatives being bought by wealthy special interests.
- djur 11y ago
  Both Clinton and Sanders are also in favor of closing the carried interest loophole, and Clinton campaigned on it in 2008, too. It's a commonplace position in the Democratic party. "Mainstream politicians don't touch it" should probably be "mainstream Republicans don't touch it".

Trump is certainly not trolling. Don't underestimate the probability that he will win.

by oskarth 11y ago

Trump is certainly not trolling. Don't underestimate the probability that he will win.

dagw 11y ago

His probability of winning doesn't affect the fact that he's trolling. In fact winning would just make the troll more successful.

IgorPartola 11y ago

I am guessing that probability is close to zero. The presidential race is a multi-stage contest. Trump happens to be good at working the current stage, but his current actions will eventually catch up to him later. I used to be a big fan of the show Survivor. Russell Hantz had a similar run: twice in a row he made it all the way to the end, but because of how he got there he could not actually win the grand prize. Trump is similar: he is going to pull a lot of stunts, get lots of attention and spend lots of money. Then the rubber meets the road and he'll lose. The real question is whether he is going to be the Republican nominee, because if he is then they'll be handing the victory over to the Democrats. My guess is that like many vanity candidates before Trump, he'll fizzle out before the primaries, but if he does make it even more hilarity will ensue.

oskarth 11y ago
How much did you bet at what odds did Trump won't become president? Surely it's a wise investment strategy, given how certain you seem to think the future is. Odds are something like 15:1, so if you think it's 150:1 - or more - that's a 10x certain return. It's a no-brainer, in that case. The point is that talk is cheap. Of course it's more likely that he won't become president, but don't rule out the chance that he might. If you do, it'd be wise to put your money where your mouth is.
- IgorPartola 11y ago
  I generally don't gamble, that's why I didn't bet any money on this race, or any other. In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. You are right, talk is cheap and I am just shooting my mouth here, like everyone here.
  - DanBC 11y ago
    > In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-president... Lots of people taking bets.
  - tim333 11y ago
    You can bet either way here https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.10... It's a peer to peer platform. Approx £500k punted on the US president so far on betfair. For what it's worth Nate Silver thinks he has no chance.

tim333 11y ago

I put some money on Trump at 11:1 so I'm estimating the probability at higher than that. Scott Adams has a mildly entertaining series of blog posts on why he thinks he'll win. Roughly that he's good at persuasion techniques. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/128552964506/the-outsider-explanation-part-of-my-trump http://blog.dilbert.com/post/128552964506/the-outsider-expla... One reason I think he may do it is that he's spoken out against the carried interest exemption for hedge funds. It seems obviously fair that hedge fundies should pay as much or more as doctors and nurses and the like but the mainstream politicians don't touch it because they want the campaign contributions and are scared of them funding their opponents instead. I'm hypothesising that the voters are fed up with their representatives being bought by wealthy special interests.

djur 11y ago
Both Clinton and Sanders are also in favor of closing the carried interest loophole, and Clinton campaigned on it in 2008, too. It's a commonplace position in the Democratic party. "Mainstream politicians don't touch it" should probably be "mainstream Republicans don't touch it".