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That statement jumped out at me as ridiculous. Of course conceptions are up in those months if there is increased frequency of births 9 months later. That's not
by bostonpete 11y ago
That statement jumped out at me as ridiculous. Of course conceptions are up in those months if there is increased frequency of births 9 months later. That's not an "reasonable explanation" of the data so much as a restatement of it...
- aaronharnly 11y agoJust to play devil's advocate -- not every conception results in birth, and it's not implausible that the P(birth|conception) might vary over the year. For example, if a first trimester in the winter were more likely to result in miscarriage; or if more unwanted conceptions resulting in abortion happened in spring (??). But, yeah, I agree :)
- bostonpete 11y agoHmm, good point. Whether it's a reasonable assumption or not, I had unconsciously assumed the ratio of births to conceptions would be constant. You get an A for logic, I'll give myself a C... :-)