6 ms·

Predictions for 2010

65 points by treblig 17y ago

Anon84 17y ago
20. Adobe CS5 makes biggest splash in the “Objective-C is hard, here’s another way to make iPhone applications” space. This can be pretty big. Specially if Apple releases the fabled iSlate with an iPhone-like OS (although I hope it's a touch based feline). All the little flash games and apps out there would suddenly become deployable in Apple hardware and Steve Jobs would all of a sudden get a gazilion more developers (for free) to help him push all of his lovely hardware.
- cubicle67 17y ago
  There's still a number of factors this depends on before it becomes big. I'm guessing how it will work is the iPhone apps will consist of an embedded (in the app) flash platform that just plays the native flash code. This will require Adobe to build a native flash player that doesn't suck Flash devs have to be willing to get a Mac and pay Apple their $99 I'm guessing (again) that Flash based games won't be able to have the same performance as native ones. The Flash player need to be able to be fast enough for some decent games that people will be willing to pay for The iPhone UI is quite different from kb + mouse based UI, so most things will require a bit of a rethink regarding how the user interacts
  - jsz0 17y ago
    It's interesting the tech media has not covered the fact that Adobe failed to deliver on their promises of a beta of Flash 10 for Android (October) and the Palm Pre ("by the end of the year") Makes me think things aren't going swimmingly behind the scenes at Adobe.
  - seiji 17y ago
    Not quite. Adobe is using LLVM to translate ActionScript into native ARM assembly. No flash needed. See http://www.adobe.com/devnet/logged_in/abansod_iphone.html http://www.adobe.com/devnet/logged_in/abansod_iphone.html and http://labs.adobe.com/wiki/index.php/Applications_for_iPhone:Developer_FAQ http://labs.adobe.com/wiki/index.php/Applications_for_iPhone...
    - cubicle67 17y ago
      thanks, didn't know about this. Be interesting to see what happens
    - blasdel 17y ago
      That just replaces their Actionscript interpreter + VM + JIT implementation toolchain, which was already awesome. What everyone complains about the terrible quality of is the Runtime, which sucks ass on every platform but desktop Windows (where it is decent), and will continue to for the forseeable future.
- adatta02 17y ago
  doesn't Adobe all ready have a LLVM backend to target the iPhone from ActionScript3?
- maxklein 17y ago
  I heard the frame-rate is les horrible! 12fps for very simple flash games when running on mobile platforms. Maybe the tablet will run flash better, but I don't really see Apple having much of an interest in enabling this.
mad44 17y ago
I like this one: Bonus: RSS faces death as filtered content recommendation systems on social services emerge. They, along with most real-time startups, struggle to find a revenue model (in 2010). People almost get enjoyment out of claiming “RSS Is Dead”. The main problem with completely switching off RSS and on to Twitter is that there is a lot of noise – not to say that RSS isn’t noisy either, but it’s at least generally focused. The complete switch for me will occur when a service can leverage the vast amount of data collected by these social services and curate it in to a personalized feed just for me. Companies and investors are bullish on the real-time space, and I expect to see this service come to light this year. That being said, It is unclear to me that real-time content services have any significant revenue advantages over almost-real-time services. Accordingly, I don’t predict any services will figure out a way to monetize the added value of extreme recency in 2010.
- deleted 17y ago
  [deleted]
- SandB0x 17y ago
  I just don't get this. My RSS reader automatically receives articles from sites I like, or subsections of sites I like, and in most cases the entire article is fed through to my browser/phone in a nice readable format. Perfect. I don't see why it's broken and why we need to reinvent the wheel. Maybe I haven't subscribed to sufficiently noisy feeds. Can someone explain?
  - DoQrs 17y ago
    With RSS, you get a deep view at very narrow topics (a full feed by one blog). You can set up filters and whatnot, but it's still a very narrow model. A more social system leveraging your interests, your peers, and all that other crap could surface good content you might otherwise have never seen, plus the best content you were already seeing. It's a pipe dream, but I imagine that a service will figure it out sooner rather than later. As I mention in the article, whether or not they actually manage to make money remains to be seen.
    - 17y ago
deleted 17y ago
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deleted 17y ago
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10ren 17y ago
A few of these are predicated on an improved economy, which is probably right.
bugs 17y ago
Are Dropbox and GitHub wanting to get acquired?
- pjhyett 17y ago
  We have no reason to sell GitHub, the business is doing very well and we're all having a great time.
  - onewland 17y ago
    How about for $500m? Not saying that's what would be offered, just noting that there is probably a monetary threshold where "having a great time" no longer is relevant.
    - BerislavLopac 17y ago
      Also known as "everybody has their price". ;)
cmelbye 17y ago
The Droid is hands-down the best non-iPhone phone on the market. Huh? I just tried the Droid tonight at the Verizon kiosk, and I found it slow and confusing. HTC Sense on the HTC Hero is better by leaps and bounds.
- alexgartrell 17y ago
  the Samsung moment has all of the features of the droid (including a superior slide out keyboard). I love mine and haven't had any battery life complaints.
  - cmelbye 17y ago
    Yeah, that's just it. The Droid is pretty much a stock Android device if I'm understanding correctly. HTC has actually created a slick, usable, and fast interface for the phone, and that's a key feature in my mind.
- ramchip 17y ago
  Now let me put on my troll face for a minute. My Sharp SH001 has an autofocus 8.0MP camera, GPS, TV receiver, microSD card port, flashlight, bluetooth, infrared emitter/receiver, internet & emails (via cellphone network), built-in japanese & english OCR and QR code reader and misc apps (GPS maps, train planner, dictionary, banking, alarm, calendar, etc). Of course it can play music/videos, install apps and do what a phone does. All that for a flexible contract (costs me 15$-20$ per month, I email a lot, do a little internet, but almost never call) for 2 years and the phone itself is free. Sure, there's no WiFi and the user interface is sometimes frustrating. But I'm not impressed by the iPhone. What makes it so great? The usable interface and the app market? Sorry for the trollish post. I have a hard time understanding the hype for some american phones when a generic, free phone in Asia has better specs and decent design. Why don't they import them back home? :/
  - jsz0 17y ago
    Mostly the UI and App Store but more importantly Apple has done a huge amount of advertising which serves to educate consumers on why they might want a SmartPhone. They show really compelling & practical uses for the iPhone. They show off impressive games. They show how easy it is to use. I kind of feel like the average consumer may not even be aware other phones offer similar features at this point. Apple just leaped out ahead on marketing SmartPhones to a wider market. Meanwhile their competition is spending their money on weird ads like the Palm Pre & Droid marketing campaign that don't bother showing off the device/software much at all.
icode 17y ago
All of these predictions are so vague, one will never be able to judge if they are right or wrong.
jsz0 17y ago
AT&T/Verizon/Apple: Apple's affections change quickly. In a span of about 8 months we had Jobs cracking jokes on Intel to Paul Otellini on stage in a bunny costume at an Apple event. If Verizon & Apple cannot reach a deal I suspect we'll see the CDMA iPhone on Sprint instead. Is there anything Sprint wouldn't do to get the iPhone?
mdg 17y ago
> 10. Square realizes its bottleneck is additional hardware, so it gives card reader away for free. Isn't this what PayPal was originally trying to do back in the day? Interesting concept.

65 points by treblig 17y ago

20. Adobe CS5 makes biggest splash in the “Objective-C is hard, here’s another way to make iPhone applications” space. This can be pretty big. Specially if Apple releases the fabled iSlate with an iPhone-like OS (although I hope it's a touch based feline). All the little flash games and apps out there would suddenly become deployable in Apple hardware and Steve Jobs would all of a sudden get a gazilion more developers (for free) to help him push all of his lovely hardware.

cubicle67 17y ago
There's still a number of factors this depends on before it becomes big. I'm guessing how it will work is the iPhone apps will consist of an embedded (in the app) flash platform that just plays the native flash code. This will require Adobe to build a native flash player that doesn't suck Flash devs have to be willing to get a Mac and pay Apple their $99 I'm guessing (again) that Flash based games won't be able to have the same performance as native ones. The Flash player need to be able to be fast enough for some decent games that people will be willing to pay for The iPhone UI is quite different from kb + mouse based UI, so most things will require a bit of a rethink regarding how the user interacts
- jsz0 17y ago
  It's interesting the tech media has not covered the fact that Adobe failed to deliver on their promises of a beta of Flash 10 for Android (October) and the Palm Pre ("by the end of the year") Makes me think things aren't going swimmingly behind the scenes at Adobe.
- seiji 17y ago
  Not quite. Adobe is using LLVM to translate ActionScript into native ARM assembly. No flash needed. See http://www.adobe.com/devnet/logged_in/abansod_iphone.html http://www.adobe.com/devnet/logged_in/abansod_iphone.html and http://labs.adobe.com/wiki/index.php/Applications_for_iPhone:Developer_FAQ http://labs.adobe.com/wiki/index.php/Applications_for_iPhone...
  - cubicle67 17y ago
    thanks, didn't know about this. Be interesting to see what happens
  - blasdel 17y ago
    That just replaces their Actionscript interpreter + VM + JIT implementation toolchain, which was already awesome. What everyone complains about the terrible quality of is the Runtime, which sucks ass on every platform but desktop Windows (where it is decent), and will continue to for the forseeable future.
adatta02 17y ago
doesn't Adobe all ready have a LLVM backend to target the iPhone from ActionScript3?
maxklein 17y ago
I heard the frame-rate is les horrible! 12fps for very simple flash games when running on mobile platforms. Maybe the tablet will run flash better, but I don't really see Apple having much of an interest in enabling this.

mad44 17y ago

I like this one: Bonus: RSS faces death as filtered content recommendation systems on social services emerge. They, along with most real-time startups, struggle to find a revenue model (in 2010). People almost get enjoyment out of claiming “RSS Is Dead”. The main problem with completely switching off RSS and on to Twitter is that there is a lot of noise – not to say that RSS isn’t noisy either, but it’s at least generally focused. The complete switch for me will occur when a service can leverage the vast amount of data collected by these social services and curate it in to a personalized feed just for me. Companies and investors are bullish on the real-time space, and I expect to see this service come to light this year. That being said, It is unclear to me that real-time content services have any significant revenue advantages over almost-real-time services. Accordingly, I don’t predict any services will figure out a way to monetize the added value of extreme recency in 2010.

deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
SandB0x 17y ago
I just don't get this. My RSS reader automatically receives articles from sites I like, or subsections of sites I like, and in most cases the entire article is fed through to my browser/phone in a nice readable format. Perfect. I don't see why it's broken and why we need to reinvent the wheel. Maybe I haven't subscribed to sufficiently noisy feeds. Can someone explain?
- DoQrs 17y ago
  With RSS, you get a deep view at very narrow topics (a full feed by one blog). You can set up filters and whatnot, but it's still a very narrow model. A more social system leveraging your interests, your peers, and all that other crap could surface good content you might otherwise have never seen, plus the best content you were already seeing. It's a pipe dream, but I imagine that a service will figure it out sooner rather than later. As I mention in the article, whether or not they actually manage to make money remains to be seen.
  - 17y ago

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

10ren 17y ago

A few of these are predicated on an improved economy, which is probably right.

bugs 17y ago

Are Dropbox and GitHub wanting to get acquired?

pjhyett 17y ago
We have no reason to sell GitHub, the business is doing very well and we're all having a great time.
- onewland 17y ago
  How about for $500m? Not saying that's what would be offered, just noting that there is probably a monetary threshold where "having a great time" no longer is relevant.
  - BerislavLopac 17y ago
    Also known as "everybody has their price". ;)

cmelbye 17y ago

The Droid is hands-down the best non-iPhone phone on the market. Huh? I just tried the Droid tonight at the Verizon kiosk, and I found it slow and confusing. HTC Sense on the HTC Hero is better by leaps and bounds.

alexgartrell 17y ago
the Samsung moment has all of the features of the droid (including a superior slide out keyboard). I love mine and haven't had any battery life complaints.
- cmelbye 17y ago
  Yeah, that's just it. The Droid is pretty much a stock Android device if I'm understanding correctly. HTC has actually created a slick, usable, and fast interface for the phone, and that's a key feature in my mind.
ramchip 17y ago
Now let me put on my troll face for a minute. My Sharp SH001 has an autofocus 8.0MP camera, GPS, TV receiver, microSD card port, flashlight, bluetooth, infrared emitter/receiver, internet & emails (via cellphone network), built-in japanese & english OCR and QR code reader and misc apps (GPS maps, train planner, dictionary, banking, alarm, calendar, etc). Of course it can play music/videos, install apps and do what a phone does. All that for a flexible contract (costs me 15$-20$ per month, I email a lot, do a little internet, but almost never call) for 2 years and the phone itself is free. Sure, there's no WiFi and the user interface is sometimes frustrating. But I'm not impressed by the iPhone. What makes it so great? The usable interface and the app market? Sorry for the trollish post. I have a hard time understanding the hype for some american phones when a generic, free phone in Asia has better specs and decent design. Why don't they import them back home? :/
- jsz0 17y ago
  Mostly the UI and App Store but more importantly Apple has done a huge amount of advertising which serves to educate consumers on why they might want a SmartPhone. They show really compelling & practical uses for the iPhone. They show off impressive games. They show how easy it is to use. I kind of feel like the average consumer may not even be aware other phones offer similar features at this point. Apple just leaped out ahead on marketing SmartPhones to a wider market. Meanwhile their competition is spending their money on weird ads like the Palm Pre & Droid marketing campaign that don't bother showing off the device/software much at all.

icode 17y ago

All of these predictions are so vague, one will never be able to judge if they are right or wrong.

jsz0 17y ago

AT&T/Verizon/Apple: Apple's affections change quickly. In a span of about 8 months we had Jobs cracking jokes on Intel to Paul Otellini on stage in a bunny costume at an Apple event. If Verizon & Apple cannot reach a deal I suspect we'll see the CDMA iPhone on Sprint instead. Is there anything Sprint wouldn't do to get the iPhone?

mdg 17y ago

> 10. Square realizes its bottleneck is additional hardware, so it gives card reader away for free. Isn't this what PayPal was originally trying to do back in the day? Interesting concept.