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>UBI doesn't create a disincentive to work, UBI replacing means-tested programs eliminates a disincentive to work. UBI has complicated secondary effects. Some

by jasode 11y ago

>UBI doesn't create a disincentive to work, UBI replacing means-tested programs eliminates a disincentive to work. UBI has complicated secondary effects. Some of them can be contradictory. One who gets welfare would have disincentive to work because of the loss of benefits in today's govt programs. UBI may spur some (not all) of them to join the workforce. However, another scenario is the mass populations of part-time workers earning mininum wage ($7.25) that total less than $11k a year. That's ~1500 hours of lost labor hours for those who are perfectly fine with not making more than UBI's $11k. It's definitely not as simple as saying, "UBI only creates incentives to work and never any disincentives, and GDP can only go up or stay the same instead of down."

dragonwriter 11y ago
Well, here's the thing, if the level it is set at leads to output-reducing withdrawal from the workforce more than output-increasing effects, then it also leads to inflation which drives price levels up and drives people back into the workforce [0] -- its self-limiting. The bigger problem is that the economy might not yet be able to sustain a level at which UBI isn't substantially worse for the neediest populations than existing support programs -- increasing capacity through automation will get us there eventually, but its far from clear we're there now. Which is why, while I think UBI is a great idea to adopt and phase in, I don't think a big-bang short-term conversion is a good idea. [0] unless it is pegged to inflation, then if its set initially in a bad place, its stuck there. So, if you are going to index it rather than manually adjust it, don't index it to inflation, index it to output/revenue measures, not price levels.
- nosuchthing 11y ago
  alternative to the CPI is the Billion Prices Project, born out of MIT http://bpp.mit.edu/ http://bpp.mit.edu/
  - dragonwriter 11y ago
    Its not a matter of which price measure you use, using any price measure as a control for UBI means if you set it outside the stable range the economy can support, inflation no longer acts to reduce the real value of the benefit down to the level the economy can support.
nosuchthing 11y ago
"Lost labor hours" in minimum wage fields might very well be spread across a larger labor base of formerly unemployed potentially reducing crime and incarceration rates. Also, "lost labor hours" in what fields..? Reduced labor hours would not necessarily suggest reduced economic output, or a reduction in construction projects, or small business experiments.

by jasode 11y ago

dragonwriter 11y ago

Well, here's the thing, if the level it is set at leads to output-reducing withdrawal from the workforce more than output-increasing effects, then it also leads to inflation which drives price levels up and drives people back into the workforce [0] -- its self-limiting. The bigger problem is that the economy might not yet be able to sustain a level at which UBI isn't substantially worse for the neediest populations than existing support programs -- increasing capacity through automation will get us there eventually, but its far from clear we're there now. Which is why, while I think UBI is a great idea to adopt and phase in, I don't think a big-bang short-term conversion is a good idea. [0] unless it is pegged to inflation, then if its set initially in a bad place, its stuck there. So, if you are going to index it rather than manually adjust it, don't index it to inflation, index it to output/revenue measures, not price levels.

nosuchthing 11y ago
alternative to the CPI is the Billion Prices Project, born out of MIT http://bpp.mit.edu/ http://bpp.mit.edu/
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  Its not a matter of which price measure you use, using any price measure as a control for UBI means if you set it outside the stable range the economy can support, inflation no longer acts to reduce the real value of the benefit down to the level the economy can support.

nosuchthing 11y ago

"Lost labor hours" in minimum wage fields might very well be spread across a larger labor base of formerly unemployed potentially reducing crime and incarceration rates. Also, "lost labor hours" in what fields..? Reduced labor hours would not necessarily suggest reduced economic output, or a reduction in construction projects, or small business experiments.