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Just as a completely rough order-of-magnitude approximation meant to spark discussion of the viability of a universal basic income in the United States: Wikipe

by marvin 11y ago

Just as a completely rough order-of-magnitude approximation meant to spark discussion of the viability of a universal basic income in the United States: Wikipedia estimates the total net worth of US households and non-profits at $55 trillion in 2009. Assuming a 1% annual wealth tax on all assets (Norway currently has a 1.1% annual wealth tax, albeit only on fortunes greater than $120,000), we get annual proceeds of $550 billion. Social Security pays out $813 billion in total annual benefits. Kill off Social Security entirely and institute the tax. Divided by USA's 320 million population, we end up with ~$4250 per citizen per year. So with an annual minimum wage of $15,000, on average no more than every third citizen would have to depend entirely on the basic income. Also, tax revenues or net worth would also not have to decrease once the program was started. You can tweak the assumptions, add other possible sources of income to the system, approximate the economic surplus of the people who are now supported by UBI, question the viability of living on minimum wage, estimate the economic surplus of getting rid of means-tested welfare programs etc. Plenty of room for discussion! Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_in_the_United_States http://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/what-are-annual-earnings-full-time-minimum-wage-worker http://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/what-are-annual-earnings-full... http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/12/federal-spending-by-the-numbers-2014 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/12/federal-spe...

irishcoffee 11y ago
Looks like the avg. monthly payout of social security in 2015 is 1,332.35. Your proposal would come out to around 350.00 a month. I'm not sure that would go over very well. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0780010.html http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0780010.html
- marvin 11y ago
  Of course not. I don't think it's politically viable to implement basic income the way I've sketched. Wealth tax of 1% probably wouldn't go over very well either. If the net worth of the nation doubles twice more, though, it's a different question. It's far from impossible that this, or a similar situation which would benefit greatly from an UBI, occurs over the next 50 years. We're on the right order of magnitude, which is as close as I feel confident estimating things without detailed knowledge of the tax system and social programs of the US. I could make a better guess for Norway, but even there it's sketchy because a lot of the non-social support programs that would become cheaper with basic income (e.g. student loans, support for artists) aren't part of the official social security numbers. There's also a lot of "number massaging" you can do to greatly increase the number, not least of which being to pay support only for adults.

by marvin 11y ago

irishcoffee 11y ago

Looks like the avg. monthly payout of social security in 2015 is 1,332.35. Your proposal would come out to around 350.00 a month. I'm not sure that would go over very well. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0780010.html http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0780010.html

marvin 11y ago
Of course not. I don't think it's politically viable to implement basic income the way I've sketched. Wealth tax of 1% probably wouldn't go over very well either. If the net worth of the nation doubles twice more, though, it's a different question. It's far from impossible that this, or a similar situation which would benefit greatly from an UBI, occurs over the next 50 years. We're on the right order of magnitude, which is as close as I feel confident estimating things without detailed knowledge of the tax system and social programs of the US. I could make a better guess for Norway, but even there it's sketchy because a lot of the non-social support programs that would become cheaper with basic income (e.g. student loans, support for artists) aren't part of the official social security numbers. There's also a lot of "number massaging" you can do to greatly increase the number, not least of which being to pay support only for adults.