If all you have are 2 data points for argument #1, then I'll take my chances with the government picking, what, Wifi technology? How hard can that be, and more

If all you have are 2 data points for argument #1, then I'll take my chances with the government picking, what, Wifi technology? How hard can that be, and more importantly, how bad could the consequences of picking a 'non-winner' be?