3 ms·
false positive rate 27.9% means: if the drug is not effective (at all), there is 27.9% probability that the drug would be approved by FDA.
by ccw9302 11y ago
false positive rate 27.9% means: if the drug is not effective (at all), there is 27.9% probability that the drug would be approved by FDA.
- gwern 11y ago> if the drug is not effective (at all), there is 27.9% probability that the drug would be approved by FDA. Which is only one of two possibilities, and hence, it cannot be 'the probability the drug is approved by the FDA', for the same reason that 'a p-value of 0.05' does not mean '95% probability the drug works'.